Comfort foods, flexitarians and higher menu prices likely trends for 2022: Andrew Coppolino

While the food and beverage industry, and the rest of us, struggle with the pandemic and a current dine-in closure that will consume most of January, it's time to look ahead at food operations in 2022.

It's difficult, however, to gauge trends when it comes to food and eating at restaurants amid so much upheaval.

That's further compounded by the fact the industry hasn't yet recovered from previous pandemic shutdowns.

Labour: food service jobs 

It is safe to say that the current labour issues and staffing are bound to continue with employees being furloughed, working hybrid careers with supplemental jobs elsewhere in the economy or leaving the industry completely.

A newly increased provincial hourly wage of $15 is offset by reduced or eliminated hours and price hikes for food and accommodation. It means that restaurants will continue to struggle to find experienced and knowledgeable staff, and that will impact the dining experience once indoor dining is back.

Currently, waitstaff can receive $300 ($270 after taxes withheld) per week through the Canada Worker Lockdown Benefit, which represents an income gap: in just two good shifts at a busy bar and grill, a waiter can make more than that in tips.

Menus: food prices rise

With inflation and costs rising at every corner, menu prices are going up. During previous pandemic interruptions, restaurateurs may have been reluctant to pass those costs to the customer, especially given such a fragile economy. This round of mandated closures, food operators will likely have little choice but to increase their prices.

The corollary with rising menu prices may well be smaller menus, as supply lines are stretched and some ingredients are prohibitively expensive and difficult to recover in terms of food costing.

Even the prices for the humble frozen chicken wing and the fryer oil they are cooked in have risen drastically: the 60 litres of oil that once sold for $20 is now close to $60.

Customers may not realize that global demand is at play when their French fries suddenly cost more.

From ghost kitchens to flexitarian diets

On happier notes, research companies and industry associations regularly scan chefs and others in the food business for trends. In smaller markets such as Waterloo region, food trends eventually wend their way from larger centres like Toronto, Chicago and New York, taking a couple of years to settle in.

A trend we may have first heard of a few years ago in those larger food hubs — "ghost kitchens"  — has appeared here in several instances. That's where an established operation may contract out its service or start an off-brand operation.

An uptown Waterloo bar and grill has ramped up not only the take-out for its own brands but does ghost-kitchen cooking for selling tacos and fish and chips for delivery. Indications are that such business diversity will continue this year.

As for what might be cooked, Restaurants Canada, a key industry association, has cited the likelihood that "flexitarian" diets (people who eat meat but are reducing the amount of it and choosing more vegetarian dishes) will continue to be popular in 2022.

Glancing through restaurant menus in this region will reveal the growing number of vegetarian and vegan dishes available. Reasons for the growth include not only customer demand but also astronomical increases in meat prices.

According to Restaurants Canada, menus will also feature so-called "heritage" and comfort-food selections: in tough times, people tend look for the familiar and the comforting when they eat out or cook meals at home.

Home canning, virtual classes and mocktails, anyone?

During the height of the first pandemic wave home canning, preserving and fermenting blew up, figuratively speaking, so much that there were shortages of Mason-style jars: Restaurants Canada says that the preserving trend will continue this year.

Again, restaurants have added these techniques to their business models, not only for their dining rooms but as online retail products that customers can purchase.

Virtual events will also remain part of the landscape this year: as this column is being written, a popular taco restaurant is promoting its virtual "tequila school" and cocktail demonstration for January.

And, that said, I should include so-called "Dry" January. "Mocktails" and non-alcoholic drinks will continue to grow in popularity this year: people are reflecting health, especially when considering their indulgences in previous pandemic lockdowns. Restaurants will offer more selections of these kinds of healthy drinks.

At home, I've been experimenting with "cocktails" using the wide array of non-alcoholic "spirits" that are now on the market: brands like Seedlip, Gruv, Lyre's and Toronto-based Sobrii distill botanicals into various "liquors."

I've tried to reproduce a gin and tonic, for instance, and while I can't really describe it is as very close at all to a gin and tonic, it is a refreshing beverage for the so-called 5 p.m. "golden hour" after work.

Are robot servers next?

Finally, if we can gaze into the very distant future, we will find just a little bit of it at work on Fairway Road in Kitchener. In an era of the aroma of hand sanitizer perfuming dining rooms, social distancing and touchless QR-code menu cards on tables at restaurants, Ben Thanh restaurant has introduced a robot food runner to its staff.

While it doesn't look like a human being (it's more like a little step ladder with a touchscreen on wheels), the robot rolls around the dining room with its cheery identifying tune delivering dishes to tables. When it arrives at your table with your spring rolls and dim sum, you take the dishes, and it rolls back to the kitchen to run more food.

It's a hint of the shape of things to come, if beyond 2022.