What to get the Premier who has everything... going wrong: Robert Fisher
Robert Fisher's Ontario political analysis appears here every two weeks
It's been a rough year for Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne. There's the controversy over the sale of Hydro One. A scathing auditor general's report. High hydro rates. Major mistakes in three infrastructure projects. Voters are noticing. Ontario politics analyst Robert Fisher says a holiday break might be just what the Premier needs.
Fisher spoke with the CBC's Conrad Collaco about why getting away from Queen's Park will be a good thing for Kathleen Wynne and Ontario Liberal MPP's. Listen to the full interview by clicking the image at the top of the page or read an edited and abridged transcript below.
Robert Fisher, Ontario politics analyst
CUPE filed a lawsuit Wednesday against the Premier and two cabinet ministers over the sale of Hydro One. What will that lawsuit mean for the Liberals?
It's been a difficult time for the Liberals. They've tried with some ground breaking legislation like new child protection laws, funding for autistic children but often this was overshadowed by scandal and what folks would say is mismanagement. For example, polling is saying that somewhere between 75 and 80 per cent of Ontarians disapprove of the Hydro One sale. The government's response is that we're taking that money and putting it in infrastructure. But the concern by CUPE is that there was a conflict of interest. There was major fundraising events involving cabinet ministers where the investment bankers interested in being a part of the Hydro One privatization were in attendance.
The integrity commissioner investigated and the Premier said all the conflict of interest had been cleared off the table. CUPE doesn't believe it. There's the concern of protecting a vital resource. Then there's the aroma of cabinet ministers hobnobbing with these investment bankers. Ultimately the allegations from CUPE have not been tested in court yet.
The government has sold 30 per cent of shares in Hydro One, and plans to sell an additional 30 per cent. How are the Liberals saying the money raised from this is helping the province?
MPP's will be back in their ridings over the break and I suspect they will continue to hear about the hydro issue. People in small town, rural Ontario are closer to Hydro One. Hydro One is more important to people that live outside the big cities. The irony is that while the Premier is saying that she's spending money on infrastructure improving bridges and roads, the auditor general comes out with a report talking about the poor asphalt that is being used by companies repaving roads in Ontario. Your read about how a company installed a bridge at the Pickering GO Station in Toronto upside down. The company was paid fully for its work. You find out in the auditor general's report that all of these things are going on at the same time as the government is touting its record when it comes to infrastructure. It leaves people wondering what is really going on with their money.
Do you think the auditor general's report is the final nail in the coffin for the Wynne government?
Things are bleak for the Liberals. Polling is out that indicates that if things stay the same Kathleen Wynne might find herself leading the third party with as few as eleven seats. Things are going to change between now and June of 2018. It's hard to believe they could get worse. It's one of those things that comes along once a year and has people saying 'so is this how they are spending my taxpayer money.' We'll see if it has, as they say in our business, legs to reach into February when the House comes back.
The Tories are well ahead in the polls, but there have been reports leader Patrick Brown has rejected would-be social conservative candidates looking to run in the 2018 election. How could that affect him?
Mr. Brown and the Tories, if you look at the polls, are doing very well even though most people don't know who Patrick Brown is. He's going to be out, during the break, to tell people what he's all about. I would think Sam Oosterhoff his new MPP from Niagara-West Glanbrook is one social conservative to many for Mr. Brown. Mr. Brown and the party won't tell you why certain candidates are being rejected it seems that often there's a common thread.
There's a social conservatism that is out there that Mr. Brown used to espouse as a federal MP in Ottawa but now as leader of the provincial party needs a party that is more centrist. To get the party in that direction he's got to make sure he's got the right people on the boat all rowing in the same direction. That's why you see the party doing a lot more vetting of candidates and there's no shortage of people who want to run for Mr. Brown because of the belief in the next election there could well be a Conservative victory.
Even with the break, Wynne is in Ottawa today meeting with other premiers, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, indigenous leaders and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. What can we expect from that meeting, which is supposed to focus on climate change?
It's pretty clear there is a climate change deal her and that will please Kathleen Wynne. She is one of the Premiers who has taken charge on that with the Premier of Quebec. Other Premiers like Brad Wall of Saskatchewan is off side on this whole thing. The other issue that will come up is the issue of health care funding. I don't think they are as close to a deal as they are on climate change. Premiers are concerned Ottawa is saying that 'yes we'll raise transfer payments but you'll have to put it into home care and mental health care.' But there's no doubt that the issue of climate change is something Kathleen Wynne has led on. I think she and Justin Trudeau will come away from this meeting with a victory. I was kind of hoping there would be a picture of the Premier wearing aviator sunglasses the way the Vice-President from the United States does. I think that's one Christmas present I will not get.