Q&A: Robert Fisher on Kathleen Wynne's apology for electricity rates

It was a rare moment — a politician saying she was wrong. In this case, it was Premier Kathleen Wynne, and the issue was electricity rates.

It may well ultimately decide whether this government gets a second life in 2018 election.- Robert Fisher, CBC Ontario political analyst

But will it be enough to save the Liberals in the 2018 provincial election?

Wynne admitted that the actions that led to skyrocketing electricity rates were "a mistake." She takes responsibility, she told party faithful on Nov. 19, for "not paying close enough attention to some of the daily stresses in Ontarians' lives."

Our Ontario politics analyst Robert Fisher joins us to talk about whether it's enough to revive Wynne's faltering popularity.

Listen to the audio, or read an abridged excerpt below:

Why do you think Wynne chose the language she did?

Firstly, I think it was heartfelt. I think the tears that flowed and the emotion of that speech was real. Real because of the real mess the Ontario Liberal Party finds itself in now with a premier that was extremely popular, but if you believe all the public opinion polls, is no longer.

The most recent just out from Forum Research indicates the premier's personal popularity has dipped to 13 per cent. In context, that's a lower level than Bob Rae had at the lowest point when he was NDP premier of Ontario, and lower than even Dalton McGuinty as he was about to leave as premier and be replaced by Kathleen Wynne.

Most of her mea culpa was directed at hydro rates and how she acknowledged that she hadn't been paying as close attention as she should, and said that she would in the future.

Now it's up to the people of Ontario to see if they believe that speech and believe that something concrete can happen.

Why did Wynne chose hydro rates and not another issue?

The hydro rate issue now is something that permeates the entire province. I live in eastern Ontario, but it's an issue in southwestern Ontario. It's an issue in northern Ontario. It's something the premier cannot get away from.

As Kathleen Wynne goes, so goes the Liberal party.- Robert Fisher

The Liberals were caught by surprise that this was going on, even though there were many warning signs.

People were seeing their rates going up and up and up. The original defence is "we had to rebuild the hydro system from the previous Conservative government in Ontario." The premier said day after day that the system is a mess.

There were brown outs and black outs, and so we had to act.

Now, there's been an indication very clearly in her speech that she missed the boat on the fact that people were being harmed by the hydro rates.

 We now have to see if the actions that follow match what the premier was saying in that speech, which I think, quite frankly, will go down as the most important speech the premier has given during her time as premier.

It may well ultimately decide whether this government gets a second life in the 2018 election, which is only about 18 months away.

How important is her reputation to the success of the Liberals?

In the 2014 election, I think it really made the difference. Generally speaking, voters were believing Dalton McGuinty's best before date had expired, and with it, the government's

Then along came Kathleen Wynne, who promised new and different. You may also remember in 2014, she also offered a public apology for the fiasco around the cancellation of the two gas plants. And it worked.

She brought the party essentially back from being dead on arrival to winning a majority government. Now there's an open question about whether she can do it again.

They must now very much define Patrick Brown before he has had a chance to define himself to voters.- Robert Fisher

It's also true historically that in her political career, Kathleen Wynne has always been underestimated.

When she first ran for the legislature, she was up against a veteran cabinet minister and she defeated him quite easily. She at one point faced John Tory, who was the Conservative leader. People said, "Well, I guess that's the end of Kathleen Wynne." 

Then in the last provincial election, she was able to overcome obstacles, mostly because of her brand in being new and different and a very progressive Liberal with big ideas to help children and healthcare and education, to rebuild roads and bridges, all these big picture issues.

Her brand is critically important. As Kathleen Wynne goes, so goes the Liberal party … It's critically important for her to put together a reset button leading up to the next election.

How will Ontarians respond?

The first poll that's come out, that was released Friday morning by Forum Research, shows her personal popularity is down. PC support is at 43 per cent. The Liberals and NDP are essentially tied at 24. It's a snapshot in time.

So if an election had been held on Monday when that poll was taken, it shows Conservatives would have a strong majority government and Liberals would be in third place.

Polls do change. It's something that's not static. Something taken Monday may not be relevant to Ontario voters by Wednesday. But it is an important sign that there are problems for the Liberal party as it seeks reelection.

What will Wynne do in the days ahead?

It's important how the Liberals themselves respond. There has to be something done about the so-called pocketbook issues and the premier is committed to doing that. What she can do further about hydro rates is an open question.

More importantly for them, they must now very much define Patrick Brown before he has had a chance to define himself to voters. He's a largely unknown quantity in Ontario. He's sort of a blank page.

The Liberals must fill up that page with what they see Mr. Brown being if he were to be elected premier. And Brown must make sure that when that page is being written, it shows that he is not, for example, a social conservative like young Mr. Oosterhoff. That he is a fiscal conservative and has very progressive ideas.

Ultimately, it's going to be to the people of Ontario to decide who's putting the writing on the page and whether that page is correct or not.