Omicron could send up to 1,046 people to Hamilton hospitals by end of February: data

In the worst case scenario, the peak of the Omicron wave could send an average of 40 people to local hospitals and eight or nine people to the intensive care unit every day, show new projections from Hamilton Public Health Services.

The models from Scarsin Forecasting, shown at Monday's board of health meeting, come as Hamilton has the second-highest rate of cumulative COVID-9 hospital patients per 100,000 people in Ontario at 324.

This also comes as local hospitals are struggling to manage the demand for space as the virus continues to infect people.

Data suggests if someone gets Omicron, that person is about 50 per cent less likely to end up in hospital compared to getting infected with the Delta variant of COVID-19. But local epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson said some research from the United Kingdom suggests the risk may be even lower, at 40 per cent.

With that, the modelling offers scenarios for each case. Both scenarios account for remote learning, public health measures as of Jan. 10, and the city partially vaccinating at least 50 per cent of kids aged five to 11, and fully vaccinate at least 70 per cent of adults, by the end of January.

If Omicron has a 40 per cent risk of causing hospitalizations, it could send 760 people to hospital from Jan. 10 to Feb. 28. At its peak, in mid-January, it may also send roughly 25 people to hospital per day. 

The good news, Sanderson said, is current hospital data seems to show the city's hospitalizations are in line with the best scenario, which would see about 20 new hospitalizations daily with a peak later in January.

The data also predicts about three new intensive care unit (ICU) patients per day at the peak in mid-January, and 84 ICU patients from Monday until Feb. 28. 

But if Omicron is 50 per cent less likely to send people to hospital, the numbers leap. Instead of 760 hospitalizations, there could be 1,046. Instead of roughly 25 hospitalizations per day, there could be 40.

ICU admissions would jump from 84 to 221, and there could be as many as eight per day, the forecast shows.

Sanderson added 67 per cent of new cases are expected to occur in people aged 20 to 59, while 21 per cent will affect people 19 and under, and 12 per cent will affect people 60 and older.

But nearly half of the hospitalizations will consist of people 60 and older. Most other hospitalizations will be among those 20 to 59, the projections show.

Of the 119 deaths forecasted, people 60 and older would account for 86 per cent of them.

Sanderson said data shows the peak of hospitalizations and ICU admissions will be "far greater" than past waves.

Omicron wave hasn't peaked yet: public health

Epidemiologist Erin Rodenburg said the new wave hasn't peaked yet. Between Dec. 1, 2021 and Jan. 7, 2022, it led to new 117 hospital patients, 25 new ICU patients and eight deaths.

It also led to at least 133 outbreaks and 11,277 lab-confirmed cases.

The city is reporting 74 active outbreaks, the largest being 58 cases at the Wellington Nursing Home. 

Right now, Rodenburg said there are more than 10 new hospitalizations per day and growing. She noted the data presented only accounts for people who live in Hamilton, while local hospital data includes patients who don't live in the city. There are also two ICU admissions per day, she said, and that figure is also increasing.

St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton is reporting 77 patients patients with COVID-19, 12 ICU patients and 245 staff in isolation. Hamilton Health Sciences has 179 patients with COVID-19, 18 ICU patients and 514 patients self-isolating.

The city's medical officer of health, Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, said Hamilton hospitals are "very concerned" about how they will manage the influx of patients.

Data also highlighted how people with three vaccine doses have a higher chance of avoiding hospitalization and ICUs compared to those with seconded doses, one dose or nothing at all.

Unvaccinated people are at highest risk of severe illness, the data shows.

Death rates are still low and steady, public health said.

To avoid filling up local emergency departments, Hamilton hospitals are encouraging people to visit a primary care provider, such as a family doctor, and try virtual care to determine if someone needs in-person treatment. 

4 key goals from public health

Richardson said public health has four main goals:

1. Prevent severe illness and death.
2. Protect hospital capacity.
3. Protect in-person learning.
4. Support people and businesses financially.

More than 90 per cent of people aged 60 and up have received two doses. Nearly 70 per cent of people 70 and older have a booster shot.

Close to 90 per cent of people 25 to 59 have one dose while more than 80 per cent of people 12 to 24 have two doses.

As for kids aged five to 11, 41 per cent have one dose.

The city is also rolling out fourth doses to residents of long-term care and retirement homes. School-based vaccine clinics will follow and Hamilton started offering walk-in clinics for kids aged five to 11.

Richardson said by the end of the month, anyone in the city who wants a third dose should be able to get one. The city has 30,000 appointments available over the next 14 days.