Why an extended March break might not stop COVID-19 from spreading in schools
Paul Bennett has advice on how parents can keep kids learning over the extended March break
A researcher who has studied how other countries are dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak says there's reason to believe extending March break won't keep the virus out of schools.
The Ontario government announced Thursday that, after March break next week, Ontario's publicly funded schools will remain closed for another two weeks as a precaution against the spread on the COVID-19 virus.
Paul Bennett, the research director at education consulting group the Schoolhouse Institute, spoke Friday morning with the CBC's Conrad Collaco. You can read an abridged and edited version of the interview below or click on the play button above to listen to the full interview.
What do you think of the province's decision to close schools?
How effective do you think it will be in stopping the spread of the virus?
Well COVID-19 is a unique virus that is unpredictable. What we do know from the early studies in Wuhan the first 40,000 have been studied that were attacked by the virus. There's a study that two point four per cent were 19 years of age or younger, and then in a smaller study in a city later on 13 percent of those who were hit by this virus were actually under the age of 19. I looked last night, in Canada, of 159 cases and of the numbers that have been affected, they say about, I think, it's two thirds, 67 per cent are over the age of 40. So, unlike H1N1 which disproportionately hit children and youth, this is really hard to predict. It's not a natural decision then to close the schools because it doesn't really address the primary victims of this particular pandemic.
How susceptible are students to getting the virus?
Well what we know is that schools are prime breeding grounds for germs and there there's definitely a connection. There's also something to be considered here if groups or gatherings of 250 or 500 people are to be avoided, that describes every school. So, I think they come under that category too and remember there are teachers involved and we've got many teachers, well over a hundred thousand teachers in Ontario, for example. So you've got a lot of people who are not children to be considered. I think what the issue is though is the capacity of families to actually take care of their kids in an unexpected fashion in a period where they're not prepared and where their home arrangements may not be right or they may be themselves employed parents in precarious workplaces or as wage labour and they can't afford to be off taking care of their kids.
So, there are a lot of unknowns, but I think we're in unchartered territory. That's what makes this so hard to analyze. As policy researchers, we pride ourselves on going back and getting research and that's the basis upon which we make decisions and it's called evidence-based research. In this circumstance you know it only takes you so far and when you're in a crisis and a worldwide emergency there are a lot of people who say well you have to use your instincts. I do believe this, that if you're going to close the schools it's better to be preemptive and to be preventative than it is to cancel the schools because there's mass absenteeism and teachers are real and you have no other choice. I think it makes a little more sense. What is really worrisome though is the research is clear on this. Once the period of suspension of school is over, everyone goes back and there's a spike in the actual transmission and that's been clear in all the previous studies. So, I don't actually believe the minister is accurate in saying everything will be okay after a three week suspension.
How are school systems in other countries handling the virus?
They went very much in a different direction, they went for testing kits and the availability of individual testing kits so that people were a bit more empowered. You notice now you can drive by and have yourself tested and I think most people have credited South Korea with adding to our knowledge of how to combat this.
It's not perfect but we do have what is commonly acknowledged as a health care safety net. It's going to be tested, but we may come out of it stronger than a lot of other countries, but it will be a major test. What worries me though is if there is a prolonged school interruption that's longer than three weeks or longer than say a month, we don't have the capacity for e-learning. We don't have a system in place to ensure continuity of learning after that two or three week period, I think the minister is probably not correct in that.
That's what we've been hearing from Ontario teachers prior to the outbreak of the virus as they reviewed the government's early plans for e-learning, some criticism of the estimates of success provided by the minister. So, now, in addition to the days missed by strikes, — now three more weeks without classes — how far back are students in Ontario?
Well they're going to be disadvantaged in their learning and achievement, but when you're faced with a global health care emergency it might seem to be really a small issue to be focusing on. So you know things are changing so rapidly you know what you might think of a week ago, you have to rethink your perceptions of what's happening.
It might sound like you're just picking on a small thing when everyone is struggling to try to overcome this. On the e-learning, I wonder if I can share this with you, some of your listeners will know that I wrote the chapter on Canada in the Springer Guide to e-learning and I did an analysis of how well we were equipped across the country in e-learning and what the potential was and what I concluded, and it's in that chapter in the Springer handbook on e-learning, is that we have a polygon pattern from province to province. Ontario is better prepared than others, but it's not robust enough. What we do have is a regulatory regime around e-learning where it's a regulated expansion of e-learning. In the United States it's like the wild frontier with all kinds of independent and private initiatives competing for the market in e-learning. Here it's more regulated.
So, my feeling is that ultimately we may be more effective in providing e-learning, but it's going to come through a more regulated expansion of e-learning managed by school systems.
Do you have any advice for parents now wondering how to keep their kids busy over these next three weeks?
I think many parents are going to discover Khan Academy and they're going to be thanking their lucky stars that they discovered Khan Academy because there are little modules and learning lessons. I think with learning-on-demand, parents are going to be much more conscious of how many opportunities there are for learning-on-demand.
Khan Academy is just the best known tutoring program and it's free. There are these learning-on-demand programs, parents are going to realize that there are resources out there that can enhance student learning. They're going to be looking for ways of rescuing their family from being captive in one place, or pretty much captive for up to three weeks. I think, because of the uncertainties over what you do and what you don't do, they're going to be spending an awful lot more time together than ever before. So, my feeling is parents are going to have to be rather inventive and creative to find things for the kids to do and let's hope they discover things that are educational too.