How to exploit the political realities that can keep LRT alive

This column is an opinion piece by Jason Allen, a 10-year veteran of the public transit industry. He has worked with provincial agencies, national organizations, and has lobbied MPs on parliament hill for greater investment in transit funding. He runs Third Way Consulting. For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.

The election of Doug Ford on June 7th, 2018 was a dark day for lovers of LRT in Hamilton.

Almost immediately work slowed to a crawl on the project, and many felt that there was no way that Ford would write a $1 billion cheque to a city that had overwhelmingly elected NDP MPPs, despite all assurances to the contrary. 

Sadly, just a few weeks ago these fears became reality.

Transport Minister Caroline Mulroney came to town, and in what can only be described as a circus, attempted to make an announcement cancelling the project. The decision was based on the idea – using an undisclosed report and some questionable math — that costs of the proposed LRT had somehow ballooned to $5.5 billion. 

Of course, with the initial cost estimates of the LRT now being eight-years-old, there was no doubt some impact on the numbers due to inflation, but not to such outrageous proportions. Despite the new price tag not being realistic, however, the cancelation is very real.

Not dead yet?

Yet there are some things that our local leaders and LRT proponents could be doing to increase the chances that this idea has some kind of future.

But it is going to take some deft negotiation and creative thinking to make it happen.

The first factor that leads me to believe the project is not dead is the loud, vocal outrage from the Chamber of Commerce and LiUNA. These are two groups whose opinions the provincial Conservatives would do well to listen to. While chambers of commerce are traditional friends of parties like the provincial Conservatives, labour unions are not your usual PC supporters. LiUNA broke ranks, however, in 2018 with other labour organizations and endorsed the Tories, likely offering significant financial support in the process.

As a result, the outrage from the organization and their subsequent suggestion that Ford stay far away from Hamilton for the time being must have stung.

And last week, we learned the province's response to the LiUNA criticism is to make sure the union will have a seat on the provincial task force Mulroney is setting up to see how the promised $1 billion can be spent.

Politically, the key person Hamiltonians should be reaching out to – as indeed Mayor Eisenberger has already done – is Infrastructure Minister Catherine McKenna.

McKenna lives in and represents an Ottawa riding now, but is from Hamilton, and in true Hamiltonian form, has a much greater reputation for digging in and getting involved in thorny issues than either of her two predecessors.

This is important, as Minister McKenna is partially responsible for doling out the $23 billion in the Public Transit Envelope of the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Fund (ICIF). Often incorrectly referred to as the Green fund (that's a separate fund) the Public Transit envelope is a national 10-year investment in transit capital spending.

Federal money for transit

Each province is responsible for their own agreements as to how to spend the money, and Ontario's stipulates that the federal contributions to projects under the fund will be 40%, the provincial contribution 33% and the municipal 27%. With this money in place, it may be possible for the federal government to contribute any shortfall in the LRT budget to make the project fully funded.

There remains, however, the hurdle of the 27% municipal contribution, which even a casual observer of Hamilton city politics knows is extremely unlikely to happen. This would not be a barrier if Ontario were to adopt Alberta's calculation method for their contribution split, by saying that an average of the projects across the province must come out to 40/33/27, but that individual projects don't necessarily need to adhere to that formula.  

In addition, with almost every teacher in the province poised to strike, a running battle with the very vocal and well-organized Autism community, and now his usual allies at the Chamber and LiUNA declaring his government has made a wrong move with the LRT decision, Ford needs a win.

It would also help the federal government with overcoming criticism that their infrastructure program isn't able to get shovels in the ground and deliver on promises.

That is if advocates and the city play their cards right and can convince the right people that this once in a generation investment in Hamilton deserves a second (third…fourth…) chance.

For more information about CBC's Opinion section, please see the FAQ.