Is Hamilton's gun violence this year worse than normal?

Hamilton has had a summer of alarming gun incidents and violence — afternoon gunfire in the streets, a shooting in a cafe and apartment complex. It feels out-of-the-ordinary, and it's the talk of the town, from neighbourhood town halls all the way up to top city leaders.

But is it out-of-the-ordinary? Has 2015 brought an increase in gunplay and gun violence to Hamilton? 

Answering that question has been difficult: Police cannot or will not release numbers to answer that question in context. 

What do we know? As of Sept. 28, there have been 13 reported incidents where a victim was shot, shot at or endangered by the discharge of a firearm, Hamilton Police say.

How does that compare to 2014 and years prior? 

They won't say.

Reassurance from the chief

Meanwhile, Hamilton Police Chief Glenn De Caire is reassuring when he speaks about gun violence. 

This year's gun violence is at about the same level as last year's, he said while he launched a gun amnesty program last week.

But the numbers he relied on to provide that reassurance cover only until May. Most of the high profile incidents that have sparked the public debate and concern have occurred since May.

"We've all seen an unacceptable spike in the use of weapons in our streets over this past summer," said Coun. Lloyd Ferguson, chair of the city's police services board.

"Rarely if ever, in my recollection, have we had people standing in the street or going into a Tim Hortons and firing at one another," Mayor Fred Eisenberger told CBC Hamilton.

Against that backdrop of political and community concern, the police response raises questions:

• Why would the chief rely on months-old numbers?
• Does the service track gun violence trends, and if so, why not release those numbers, especially given the high degree of public and political concern?
• If it isn't tracking those trends, why not? 

'We have seen a decline in firearms-related incidents'

Ferguson made that "unacceptable spike" comment in a press conference De Caire was at. Here's how the chief responded:  

"Every single firearms incident is serious. And we take it seriously," the chief said last Wednesday.

"Generally over the last five years we have seen a decline in firearms-related incidents," he continued. "Right now, we're about where we were at the same time as last year," he said. 

"But the firearms incidents that took place in the summer (are) obviously drawing the attention of the community," he said. "Rightfully so. And that's why we need to make sure that we respond to it."

What do the numbers show?

After hearing those statements, CBC Hamilton asked the Hamilton Police for numbers that show what the chief was referring to when he said Hamilton's within historical normal range.

They sent three categories of numbers.

Firearm discharge incidents, 2015: There were 13 reported incidents (the number referred to above). This covers "reported incidents where a victim was shot, shot at or endangered by the discharge of a firearm" through September 2015. 

CBC Hamilton also requested comparison numbers to previous years, but those were not supplied.  So that one doesn't help answer whether it's worse than normal.

Gun-involved crimes, January through June: This set was the number of crimes involving a gun, such as assaults, robberies as well as homicides. Updated through the end of June, there were 45 incidents, and that's lower than three of the previous four years. 

This trend bears out the chief's statements. 

But there's a big piece missing for this year. The numbers leave out a shooting in August that left an 18-year-old dead. They leave out two shootings just a few days before the chief's statements, and afternoon gunfire in August while children reportedly watched.

Also, we don't know how many of these incidents involved the actual discharge of a firearm. 

Here are those numbers from January to June: 

Dispatch calls for shootings with injuries and homicides: For yet another set of numbers, the services's Freedom of Information department sent a report from its dispatch system covering up to the beginning of September.

Adding in the two shootings a week ago, that would put Hamilton's shootings numbers at a six-year high. 

That clearly doesn't jibe with the chief's statements. But the service did not explain the discrepancy.

As well, it's not clear if all or any of these numbers include instances where guns were discharged without hitting someone. Police did not respond to a request to clarify that point.

Here are the dispatch shootings numbers:

Gunplay on the street

The nature of the gun violence this year is what is most worrisome, Eisenberger said.

"I've been around here a while and never in my time have I seen this many incidents of gunplay on the streets," Eisenberger said.  

He said he hasn't asked police for specific numbers to back up the sense of the "anomaly" specifically in seeing gunfire on the streets.

"If this is a continuing trend, that's something that ought to be broken out in statistics," he said. "That is an unusual element that has caused the concern."

The mayor has called together a task force to address youth gun violence; its first meeting was Tuesday.