3rd COVID-19 wave inevitable, lockdown could come by end of March: Hamilton health official

A third wave of COVID-19 is inevitable, according to a top health official at Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS), and Hamilton could re-enter lockdown by the end of March.

Dr. Dominik Mertz, HHS medical director of infection prevention control, shared the "less positive news" with staff at a Thursday town hall.

He said provincially, the number of COVID-19 cases are starting to slowly rise again and said hospitalizations are also growing.

"The decline that we have had has plateaued as well in a range of 700 to 800 admitted patients, which is similar to what we had beginning of December, and that's certainly a concerning piece," Mertz said of Ontario's hospitalizations.

"When we came into the second wave, we started at a much lower, better hospital capacity from that perspective, then if we are thinking going into a third wave with the current number of COVID patients already admitted."

Speaking about a third wave, Mertz said it's less of a question of if or when it will happen.

"The question is how significant that will be," he said.

Lockdown more likely than looser restrictions in Hamilton

He added there are many unknowns about how variants of concern will impact the third wave.

"It doesn't look like we will be moving down from red to orange anytime soon, the more likely change at some point will be to be back in lockdown for a few weeks, at least that's the predictions at this point," Mertz said.

"It will not be this week, next week or in a couple of weeks, but well possible that this may occur mid-March to the end of March."

Locally, Mertz said there are no plans to relax COVID-19 precautions in the near future given the variants of concern. He said the variants make up 4.9 per cent of all Hamilton's positive tests.

"Keep in mind, this can change very quickly. You need one large outbreak with the B117, and suddenly your proportion will increase very significantly," he said.

The city's medical officer of health said on Wednesday there are 21 cases in Hamilton that have "screened positive" as a COVID-19 variant, though only one has been officially confirmed.

He added half of Hamilton's COVID-19 hospitalizations are in the ICU.

But Sharon Pierson, HHS COO and executive vice-president of clinical operations, said COVID-19 hospitalizations are slightly lower than normal. HHS and St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton reported 42 patients with the virus.

Still, hospital occupancy is high, she said.

91 new cases of COVID-19 in Hamilton

There are 91 new cases in Hamilton, bringing the total seen during the pandemic to 10,377 confirmed and probable cases. 

Of these, 9,511 are resolved and 428 are active. There have been 281 people that died. 

The weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population continues to climb and has hit 60.

Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, the city's medical officer of health, has stressed the importance of needing a lowered reproduction number, but that's growing too. As of Feb. 25, it's 1.11. 

There are 37 cases that have been screened as a variant of concern. Only one has been confirmed as the B117 variant, which originated in the U.K. 

St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton is caring for 13 patients with the virus, and Hamilton Health Sciences is treating 29. 

Detention centre, shelter outbreaks growing

Several outbreaks in Hamilton have grown, including the one at Hamilton-Wentworth Detention Centre, which has reached 48 cases after 18 more inmates tested positive.

The city says 38 inmates have the virus, as well as 10 staff. 

The outbreak at Good Shepherd Men's Centre, 135 Mary Street, has doubled, with eight residents infected. There are also eight residents with the virus as linked to the Mission Services Men's Centre, which only reported two cases on Thursday.

The outbreak at Salvation Army, 94 York Boulevard, has also expanded to 38 cases. 

The outbreak at Juravinski Hospital – Unit M2 is up to eight people, including five patients and three staff.

Sharon Pierson, COO and executive vice-president of clinical operations at Hamilton Health Sciences (HHS), told staff during the Thursday town hall the hospital network likely won't be outbreak free until all of them have been vaccinated.

Rob MacIssac, HHS president and CEO, said vaccines will remain a scarce, local resource for some time.

"While there appears to have been good news around the vaccine supply coming out from the federal government, the fact of the matter is we have not seen significant increase in supply locally," he said.

There is one new outbreak at Good Shepherd Women's Services, Mary's Place. The emergency shelter has had two residents test positive. 

The YWCA's Carole Anne's Place had shown two cases yesterday, but is now only reporting one. 

Brant

The county of Brant recorded six new cases in the last 24 hours. There are 52 active cases in the county, according to data online. 

There have been 1,469 cases since March 2020 and 12 deaths. No one is currently hospitalized with COVID-19.

A total of 1,405 cases have been marked as resolved.

There have been 7,944 doses of the vaccine administered. 

Haldimand-Norfolk

The counties of Haldimand and Norfolk have recorded 1,418 cases throughout the pandemic. There are 32 active cases.

There have been 39 deaths that are considered COVID-related, and 1,342 people who have recovered. 

There have been 5,298 doses of the vaccine administered. 

Niagara

Niagara reported 21 new cases of the virus on Friday. There have been 370 people who have died in the region.

The region has seen 8,546 cases over the course of the pandemic, including 256 that are active and 7,920 that are resolved.

There have been 10,269 doses of the vaccine administered in Niagara. 

Halton

The number of COVID-19 cases in Halton rose by 31 on Friday for a total of 9,387 so far.

Data indicates 224 of those cases are active and 8,968 are resolved.

Ten of the new cases were in Burlington, which has seen 2,405 cases of COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic. There are 43 active cases in the city. 

There have been 195 deaths in the region, of which 49 were in Burlington. 

The region is reporting a total of 55 variant cases, with eight being confirmed as variants of concern. The other 47 have been "screened positive" and are waiting for final confirmation.

There have been 28,622 doses of the vaccine administered across the region. 

Six Nations

Six Nations of the Grand River has recorded 79 active cases of COVID-19 as of Friday, after only having 37 active cases on Thursday. According to data on its website, there has been 71 new cases in the past seven days. 

There has been 321 total cases, and 239 are resolved. Three people have died. 

In a media release, Ohsweken Public Health said it's pleading with community members to seek immediate testing for COVID-19 if they attended any gathering outside of their immediate household. This also goes for their close contacts. 

Those who attended a gathering are also being asked to self-isolate.