Hamilton is in peak of 2nd wave but COVID-19 vaccine is expected by spring of 2021

Hamilton public health says the city is in the "peak" of COVID-19's second wave, but adds, based on communication with the provincial and federal governments, a vaccine should arrive by spring 2021.

Dr. Elizabeth Richardson, the city's medical officer of health, and Stephanie Hughes, an epidemiologist with the city, presented a report with an update about the pandemic during a board of health meeting on Monday.

Between Oct. 30 and Friday, the virus' spread "drastically" increased. In that time there were four major shifts:

• The city's weekly incident rate per 100,000 people more than doubled from 22.5 people to 52 people.

• The city's positive rate doubled from 1.5 to three per cent.

• The average number of people a person with COVID-19 will infect jumped from just under .97 to 1.25 people.

• An increase in outbreaks in care homes and workplaces, with four outbreaks infecting more than 10 people.

Hughes explained the uptick in outbreaks has been a major factor in the climbing infection rate.

"These sources of disease do match what we saw during the peak of Wave 1 as well," she said.

Richardson said now, the city is hovering at roughly 50 cases per 100,000 people, which is the highest number to date.

But the data also shows public health has struggled to maintain the same level of contact tracing it did before, with only 27 per cent of newly identified close contacts being reached within a day of learning when they were exposed — that percentage was previously at 66.

Richardson said, during a media briefing on Monday evening, city council and the province have been helpful and providing more people to help contact tracing.

Vaccine may come before mid-2021

Despite the signs of more COVID to come, Richardson said, based on conversations with the province and federal governments, the first doses of the vaccine are expected to be available before next spring. 

The city is currently working on how it will distribute vaccines, but the overall plan is coming from the province.

Michelle Baird, director of epidemiology, wellness and communicable disease control for Hamilton Public Health, said those most at risk would likely get the vaccine first.

She explained it might start with the elderly, then essential workers and then those most at risk of getting the virus, like people in congregate settings or people in close communities in the Indigenous population.

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"These are very preliminary and subject to change ... the other piece is looking at how much vaccine is actually available will play into who receives the vaccine," she said.

By targeting who gets the vaccine, rather than allowing everyone to get vaccinated at once, Richardson said she thinks the rollout won't be similar to that of the flu vaccine, which local pharmacies continue to run out of.

Though she emphasized it will take time to roll it out, potentially into 2022.

One of the challenges with the potential vaccines coming in early 2021 is they need to be stored in extremely cold temperatures.

Another challenge will be how long it will take before the general public can be vaccinated. Richardson said it will depend on if people need multiple doses of the vaccine and how the province decides to distribute it.

2 new COVID-19 deaths

Two residents from Hamilton Continuing Care are the latest local victims of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The deaths of a woman in her early 60s and a man in his late 80s are both connected to the novel coronavirus, according to public health.

There are now 67 deaths linked to the virus.

The city reported 24 new positive tests on Monday, a lower figure than previous days. The new cumulative total is 2,439 infections. Of those, 371 are active.

Almost 2,000 people are listed as "resolved" cases.

The city's average reproduction number is still at 1.25, which means for every one person who is diagnosed with the virus, roughly 1.25 people will contract COVID-19.

There are 13 people in local hospitals, which are sitting at just under 100 per cent capacity excluding COVID-19 patients, according to public health data. Intensive care unit capacity isn't as high.

Today is also the first day Hamilton is officially in the red zone.

1 new outbreak

A staff member at St. Peter's Residence at Chedoke has been diagnosed with the virus, marking the city's newest COVID-19 outbreak.

The situation at Chartwell Willowgrove in Ancaster has also worsened, with another resident getting infected. There are now 40 residents and 25 staff with the virus, making a total of 65.

There are 16 other outbreaks in the city. Richardson said she continues to see people not following full pandemic protocols, which is causing the virus to spread.

Public health is still taking it day by day before determining what criteria it would use to implement a full lock down.

Still, there's no hard figure on what it would take to implement that step.

"That's the $64 million question," Richardson said.

Brant

Seven new cases of COVID-19 were reported on Monday in Brant County.

The area has a total of 385 confirmed cases, of which 309 are resolved and 71 were active.

Five people with the virus have died. One person is currently hospitalized.

Haldimand-Norfolk

A COVID-19 outbreak at Schuyler Farms has grown to 13 cases.

Dr. Shanker Nesathurai, medical officer of health with the Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit, said virtually all of the tests for workers at the farm have now been completed.

"People are self-isolating as directed by the public health service," he said, adding an outbreak management team has been set up.

"We hope this will come to resolution shortly."

Last week, officials in Norfolk publicly pleaded with bikers to stay away from Port Dover ahead of Friday the 13th.

On Monday, spokesperson Matt Terry said it appears that message was heard and those who did attend were generally masked and following physical distancing protocols.

"Considering what could have been and the numbers we could have seen on that day, I think what transpired was a positive. Most people really showed their support for Port Dover and Norfolk County by not attending that event."

Four new cases of COVID-19 were added to the total in Haldimand-Norfolk on Monday.

The counties have recorded 595 positive cases, 524 of which are recovered and 34 were active.

Thirty-two deaths are considered COVID-19 related.

Halton

Halton has reported 69 new cases on Monday.

There's a total of 2,998 cases of COVID-19 (2,856 confirmed and 142 probable) during the pandemic.

Of those, 549 were active on Sunday and 2,404 were resolved.

Eighty-eight of those active cases were in Burlington.

Forty-five people in the Halton region who had COVID-19 have died.

Niagara

There were 37 new cases of the virus in Niagara region on Sunday.

The area has seen 1,842 cases so far, including 1,494 that are resolved.

There are 203 active cases.

Fourteen outbreaks are ongoing and 78 people have died.

Six Nations

There were two active cases of the virus on Six Nations of the Grand River as of Friday.

An update from health officials showed Six Nations has tallied 95 cases.

One person has died.