Hamilton Centre is NDP's to lose, says expert, but low advance turnout makes outcome hard to predict

An elections expert says the question isn't who will become the member of provincial parliament (MPP) for Hamilton Centre, but by how many votes.

"If [NDP candidate] Sarah Jama does not win this election, it will be a real surprise to most of us watching the campaign," Clifton van der Linden, an assistant professor of political science at Hamilton's McMaster University told CBC Hamilton this week, just days before the byelection.

Another expert says while Hamilton Centre is the NDP's riding to lose, Jama's victory may not be certainty given voter turnout is poised to be abysmal, with just five per cent of people casting a ballot in advanced polls.

"In light of the turnout, I got a feeling [the NDP] is pretty anxious," said Wayne Petrozzi, a professor emeritus in the department of politics and public administration at Toronto Metropolitan University.

The winner of Thursday's byelection will replace former NDP leader Andrea Horwath, who stepped down to become mayor last year two months after she was re-elected as MPP in the June provincial election.

Unlike in regular provincial elections, the winner of the byelection won't be part of forming a new government, but rather will need to make their voice heard in Doug Ford's current Progressive Conservative government.

Experts say the byelection results could indicate if local voters have confidence in Jama as the new face of the NDP in that riding.

Here's what else you need to know about the riding and byelection.

Who's running?

• Peter House, Electoral Reform Party.
• Lucia Iannantuono, Green Party of Ontario. 
• Sarah Jama, Ontario New Democratic Party.
• Matthew Lingard, independent candidate.
• Deidre Pike, Ontario Liberal Party.
• Mark Snow, Libertarian.
• John Turmel, Independent candidate. 
• Lee Weiss Vassor, New Blue party.
• Pete Wiesner, Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario.
• Nathalie Xian Yi Yan, Independent candidate.

Riding snapshot

The riding's boundaries run north of the Niagara Escarpment and east of Highway 403. It's also west of Kenilworth Avenue North and includes the harbourfront.

It spans 47 kilometres.

Hamilton Centre has been an NDP stronghold. Andrea Horwath held the riding from 2007 to 2022 and won by wide margins.

The riding had 77,599 registered voters in 2022 according to Elections Ontario data. Of those, some 38 per cent voted.

According to the 2016 census, the average size of a family in the riding is two people. About a third of people living in the riding are married and the median age is 40. 

Most listed English as their mother tongue, but there were also thousands of Arabic, Vietnamese, Portuguese and Spanish speakers too.

What to watch on election day

Van der Linden said some byelections help people assess the popularity of the ruling provincial party (in this case, the Ford government).

But he said that won't be the case in Hamilton Centre — in fact, he said the results will tell us more about how people feel about the NDP.

"It will be an interesting test of the NDP's brand under its new leader and also a test of Sarah Jama's brand as well," van der Linden said.

Jama, 28, is a disability and housing activist, a caregiver and renter, who grew up using the Ontario Disability Support Program (ODSP).

She's been outspoken on many issues in Hamilton, from racism to concerns over medical assistance in dying (MAiD) legislation.

She's up against the Liberals's Deirdre Pike, a researcher, equity consultant and self-described "queer Catholic," and the Progressive Conservatives's Pete Wiesner, a Hamilton police officer.

"The results of this election and the size of the vote share difference between [Jama] and her opposing candidates will tell us something about how that brand resonates among Hamilton Centre voters."

Petrozzi said the results could indicate whether voters in the riding were supporters of Horwath or of the NDP as a whole, but it may be hard to make that conclusion if voter turnout is low.

Low voter turnout expected

Petrozzi said a low advanced voter turnout can make it hard for parties to get a sense of what will happen on election day because it impacts their polling data.

Van der Linden said most byelection voters generally already have their minds made up early on.

For example, he and Petrozzi said Jewish advocacy organization B'nai B'rith Canada issuing a statement calling on the NDP to drop Jama as a candidate for past criticism of Israel's treatment of Palestinians likely won't have enough of an impact to change any results.

Jama said during a recent debate she is "against antisemitism in all of its forms" and said you can "stand up and say Palestinians have the right to exist while also saying we are adamantly against antisemitism."

Petrozzi said whatever party wins will likely frame the win as a comeback or a sign the Ford government is trouble, but he said people shouldn't "put much stock in that."

The byelection is on Thursday and polls will be open from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m.