Hamilton likely headed for 4th wave of COVID-19 in the fall and it could be the biggest yet
'This wave will primarily be among those that are not fully vaccinated,' says epidemiologist
Hamilton is headed for a fourth wave of COVID-19 in the fall and it could be bigger than any the city has seen before in terms of the number of cases, city staff say, unless vaccination rates rise and public health measures stay in place.
Staff delivered the message to councillors on the city's board of health during an update Wednesday.
"With the delta variant circulating at over 90 per cent ... and Ontario reopening, the resulting increases in contact transmission will likely result in a fourth wave," said epidemiologist Ruth Sanderson.
"This wave will primarily be among those that are not fully vaccinated."
Staff walked the board through several scenarios for the coming months based on vaccination rates and how long the city continues to follow public health measures such as masking and physical distancing.
If the current measures stay in place into December it would have a "big impact," with more than 15,000 case of the virus could be prevented, according to forecasting from public health.
Dropping public health measures, but boosting the city's vaccination rate to 80 per cent, is expected to result in a slightly smaller change, cutting about 10,000 cases.
The potential fourth wave could be tempered if vaccines numbers rise and public health measures stay in place, said Sanderson.
But a static vaccine rate and getting rid of the measures means the coming wave "could reach levels higher than the third wave," she said, describing that as the worst-case scenario.
That's a problem as the number of Hamiltonians seeking shots has seen a "substantial decrease" in recent weeks, said Melissa Biksa, manager of COVID-19 vaccine for the city.
Troubling projections from <a href="https://twitter.com/cityofhamilton?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@cityofhamilton</a> public health.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HamOnt?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HamOnt</a> is heading into a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/COVID19?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#COVID19</a> 4th wave - projected to be the highest yet - almost exclusively with unvaccinated people.<br><br>A small 10% increase in vaccinations & maintaining public health measures eliminates this. <a href="https://t.co/MYZa4BmikH">pic.twitter.com/MYZa4BmikH</a>
—@JohnPaulDankoThe local peak came in July, with over 9,000 doses being doled out per day, but that has since plummeted to 1,700, falling behind other health units in Ontario, she said.
The impact of vaccines can be measured in much-smaller numbers of deaths and hospitalizations.
Sanderson said forecasting shows more than 500 hospitalizations will be avoided even if the vaccine rate doesn't rise from the roughly 70 per cent where it sits currently, so long as masking and distancing continues.
About 50 deaths will also be avoided, public health predicted.
Hospitalizations, deaths remain stable
The update came as case numbers and outbreaks in the city rise.
Public health reported 38 new cases on Wednesday, increasing Hamilton's total so far to 21,904.
Of those, 209 are active, just under 95 per cent are resolved and 404 people who had the virus have died.
The seven-day average for new cases sits at 29.
There are six active outbreaks, including three at shelters and another two in supportive housing.
Stephanie Hughes, another epidemiologist with the public health, said it's too early to tell if the recent rise in cases is part of a "smaller swell" or the beginning of a new wave.
Hospitalizations and deaths have so far remained stable and low, she said, however several indicators have increased, with more than 386 cases reported in just under a month and the number of outbreaks rising from zero in early July to 11 since.