3rd COVID-19 wave will likely be the final major wave: Hamilton health official

The third wave of COVID-19 will likely be the final major wave people face during the pandemic, says a top health official at St. Joseph's Healthcare Hamilton.

Dr. Zain Chagla, the hospital's co-medical director of infection control and an infectious diseases physician, shared the news during a staff town hall meeting on Tuesday morning.

"This is the last critical time we're going to have to deal with it from the lens of overwhelming health-care systems, overwhelming ICUs, overwhelming deaths," he said.

Chagla used data from Israel to illustrate his point. The figures shows 27 per cent of people in Israel received a single dose of vaccine on Jan. 18 and now, roughly 60 per cent of people have received one dose.

"You can see case counts essentially dropping. And again, Israel has seen outbreaks that are five to 10 times higher in terms of case counts than Ontario per capita ... you see case counts drop very, very aggressively," he said.

He also points to data that shows a comparison between the second and third waves in Israel.

"In the third wave, when everyone was vaccinated and they decided to open up, you actually see the reproductive rate falling, which is remarkable. You are introducing more contacts per person, you're reopening society, people are engaging with each other right now in places that are considered high risk, and you're getting less cases by the day, not more cases," he said.

"I really want to give people hope. This is what this last hill is for, is to get to this point, to get people vaccinated ... they're seeing these effects with 60 per cent of the population vaccinated."

The optimism comes in the face of grim projections from the panel of science experts advising the Ontario government on COVID-19.

It showed deadlier variants are circulating widely, new daily infections have reached the height of the second wave, and the number of people in hospital is now more than 20 per cent higher than at the start of the last province-wide lockdown.

Chagla also used data from England to show cases dropping off and fewer patients in hospitals day by day as more people are vaccinated.

"When you compare this to the rest of Europe, which is actually going in the wrong direction, considering this, it's pretty remarkable. And again, England is the epicentre of the B117 variant, and they're seeing this with a single dose of vaccine. To give you a sense, London, U.K., yesterday reported zero deaths from COVID-19. London is nine million individuals ... that really is hope for us."

His analysis is also supported by a recent break down of local data by Dr. Dominik Mertz, HHS medical director of infection prevention and control.

He showed there haven't been as many deaths in the third wave of the pandemic when compared to the second wave, and Mertz attributed that to vaccines reaching long-term care and retirement homes.

St. Joe's planning for potential surge in hospitals

But Mertz also said controlling hospital outbreaks and capacity will be key — and St. Joe's is beginning to plan for a potential surge in patients.

Cheryl Williams, chief nurse and executive vice-president of clinical operations, elaborated on those plans during the town hall.

She said there are currently 30 COVID-19 patients at St. Joe's, but said 18 of them are in the intensive care unit (ICU). Williams said the ICU numbers are the highest St. Joe's has seen so far during the pandemic.

"We are seeing a shift in terms of the ICU pressures that is very consistent with the provincial modelling," she said. 

Williams said the hospital is focusing on increasing staffing numbers in the ICU and bolstering critical care capacity.

"This may mean we are looking to also start to increase and potentially have plans for surge," she said.

Williams said they will be looking at where the hospital has elective work underway, which staff can provide extra support to people with critical illnesses and how can they be freed up.

"We hope we don't need to have all of that in place," she said, "but the numbers are projecting, we most likely will."