Wheat production in Alberta may leap 80% this year, and it's not the only crop on the rebound

Canadian farmers are on track to produce a better crop this year, even as the memory of a punishing drought last year remains fresh in the Prairie provinces.

Early estimates from Statistics Canada suggest crop yields will be higher this harvest because of better growing conditions in Western Canada.

The agency said Wednesday it expects higher production levels for many crops, including canola, barley, soybeans and corn. 

Jason Lenz — who farms in Bentley, Alta., about a half hour northwest of Red Deer — said the quality of this year's crop is looking good.

"We haven't had much rain over the last few weeks. So that has really allowed these crops to mature and ripen at a little quicker pace," he said in an interview with The Homestretch.

"We started our harvest a little bit earlier than normal and we're getting the crop up in this good quality, which is always a bonus."

After a late start to seeding due to poor weather, much of the Prairies has received consistent precipitation since June this year. 

That's a sharp contrast from 2021, when a severe drought withered crops in the fields. Western Canadian production of principal field crops fell by more than 40 per cent year-over-year in 2021, and was nearly 37 per cent below the previous five-year average.

For the country as a whole, total 2021 field crop production for Canada was more than 30 per cent lower than in 2020 and 27 per cent below the previous five-year average.

This past July did offer a mixed bag of conditions, Lenz said, with hailstorms impacting some fields, but many farms are seeing an above average year.

Crop insurance also played a big role on some Alberta farms, as it allowed many operations to get this year's harvest in the ground.

"The crops that we're harvesting right now can be considered the most expensive crop that we've ever grown, and that's due to the high cost of fertilizer, really the high cost of a lot of our inputs that the drought had some effect on," he said.

"So we're very thankful for the payouts that anyone got." 

According to Statistics Canada, wheat will be among the most dramatic yield increases across the country this year. Nationally, wheat production is projected to increase by 55.6 per cent year-over-year to 34.7 million tonnes in 2022, according to Statistics Canada.

Wheat production in Alberta is projected to increase by 80.1 per cent this year to 11.6 million tonnes.

Lenz cautioned that the final tally may be less than that, as the Statistics Canada numbers are based on satellite imagery and modelling from July and don't reflect the impact of August's hot, dry weather which could have impacted yields.

"That's the gamble of farming. We can have everything under control and in the practices that we're doing and the crops we're growing, but Mother Nature really does have the final say," he said.

Farmers who do get a good crop should be able to capitalize on this year's high prices. 

After flattening out slightly over the summer, grain prices are expected to remain relatively strong in the immediate future due to tight Canadian supplies, more comfortable but still relatively tight global supplies, and expectations for continued strong international demand.