OPINION | The politics behind Jason Kenney's 'tepid' response to COVID-19
'How did a skilled politician like Kenney end up in this situation? We offer a few hypotheses.'
This column is an opinion from political scientists Duane Bratt, of Mount Royal University, and Lisa Young, of the University of Calgary.
Jason Kenney is a shrewd and experienced politician.
He has years of experience as a cabinet minister in Stephen Harper's government, and was instrumental in helping Harper win a majority in 2011. Returning to Alberta politics, he successfully merged the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties and won a resounding victory in the 2019 provincial election.
And yet, in the face of the COVID-19 crisis, he and his government are floundering.
Alberta has the largest absolute number of COVID cases in Canada, despite having the fourth largest population. For 10 days in mid-November, Kenney did not appear in public despite rapidly increasing case counts, hospitalizations and deaths.
Eight months into the pandemic, his cabinet had to meet for eight hours to devise responses that many dismissed as inadequate. And most recently, a public servant has taken the unusual move of leaking information to journalists to highlight the growing divide between the Kenney government and its chief medical officer of health.
Opinion polling shows that the Kenney government is paying a price for its handling of the pandemic.
Even in the early days of COVID-19, it was noticeable that the Kenney government missed out on the "COVID bump" that most other political leaders enjoyed. This was despite the fact that, in many ways, the Alberta government had responded effectively to the first wave.
But unlike other provincial governments, Kenney and his cabinet were engaged in a very public fight with doctors at a time when the public was banging pots and pans in appreciation of front-line workers.
Not taking a lesson from this, the government engaged in a broader dispute with health-care workers through the fall, and its poll numbers continued to drop.
A slide in public support
Last week, Leger reported that only 37 per cent of Albertans believed that their provincial government was handling COVID-19 well; the lowest, by far, of any province. Then, ThinkHQ reported that 81 per cent of Albertans would support a province-wide mask mandate.
It is unlikely that the measures announced on Nov. 24 will reverse, or even halt, this slide in public support.
How did a skilled politician like Kenney end up in this situation? We offer a few hypotheses.
First, Kenney is almost certainly concerned about an electoral split on the right. Public opinion on appropriate responses to COVID is split along partisan lines, with those further to the right more resistant to mandatory measures.
Common Ground Politics survey research conducted in Alberta in August found that UCP voters were more likely than others to think that the reopening was too slow. A national survey conducted by Vox Pop found that Conservative voters were less likely to wear masks.
WATCH | Alberta Premier Jason Kenney announces new COVID-19 restrictions for Alberta
In his comments on Tuesday, the premier focused a great deal of attention on acknowledging the concerns of those on the right, who argue that restrictions are unconstitutional, for example.
The Alberta separatist (or "Wexit") movement has gained momentum since the 2019 federal election and Justin Trudeau's re-election.
With his experience merging conservative parties at both the federal and provincial level, the premier is presumably concerned about vote splitting on the right. By appeasing conservatives, especially in rural Alberta, Kenney is consolidating his base.
With 41 of the 87 seats in the Alberta legislature outside of Edmonton and Calgary, consolidating that base makes electoral sense.
The restrictions that were announced on Tuesday, and the exemptions that were offered, lend support to this hypothesis.
Certainly, the decision to extend mask mandates only in Calgary and Edmonton (where they were already required through municipal bylaws) speaks to a desire to please conservative rural voters.
Similarly, the decision to permit in-person religious services to continue while junior high and high schools had to close speaks to a desire to keep voters in conservative-leaning faith communities onside.
Response informed by ideology
Second, Kenney and many of his close advisors are strong partisans prone to demonizing their political opponents.
Although Alberta has elected conservative governments for decades, we have to go back to the Social Credit governments of the 1950s and 1960s to find a more ideologically conservative government than the current UCP. Although Ralph Klein's government was driven by fiscal conservatism in its early years, its policies moderated in later years.
The Kenney government's strong ideological conservatism has informed its pandemic response, particularly since the end of the spring lockdown.
The government's approach has been to emphasize personal responsibility rather than implementing restrictions.
Citing the economic cost of the lockdown, Kenney has repeatedly minimized the toll of the pandemic while emphasizing the negative consequences of restrictions on the economy broadly, and small business in particular.
This helps to explain why restaurants, bars, casinos, movie theatres and gyms are permitted to remain open, although with some further restrictions.
While other conservative provincial governments — notably Ontario and Manitoba — are placing greater restrictions on retail, Alberta is not.
WATCH | University of Alberta's Tim Caulfield says the province needs a transparent approach to pandemic policy
Third, having been elected on a mandate of "jobs, economy, pipelines," the Kenney government remains focused on economic performance.
Its promise of balanced budgets are, of course, no longer feasible, but the government remains deeply concerned about the province's balance sheet. This helps to explain the decision to push forward on cost savings in the public sector — including health-care — during the pandemic, as well as decisions that prioritize the economy.
These three explanations — electoral considerations, ideology, and a focus on the economy — have resulted in a pandemic response that looks weak when compared to other provinces.
This is a moment that tests political leaders, requiring them to set aside political considerations in favour of the public good. Lives are at stake.
As the death toll continues to rise, the government's tepid response will come under greater public scrutiny, and the political calculations that have informed it will appear increasingly out of touch.
If the Kenney government is unable to adjust to these new realities, it may pay a steep political price in 2023, as the electorate holds it accountable for both the economic and human cost of the pandemic.
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