Amid a softening recreational property market, buyers still flock to Canmore

The hot housing market Canmore is one example of how Alberta's recreational property market is staying strong amid softening demand in other parts of the country. 

At a national level, spring forecasts from Royal LePage and ReMax Canada suggest that amid higher interest rates and economic uncertainty, the pandemic-induced frenzy for recreational property has started to die down. 

Royal LePage predicts the national average price for these properties will decrease this year, and while ReMax is a bit more optimistic — it still expects prices to rise by about one per cent — it's a far cry from last year's forecast of up to 20 per cent growth. 

"Buyers are a little more cautious right now, being a little more careful with what they're doing," said Elton Ash, regional vice-president for ReMax Canada. 

But how cautious buyers are feeling depends on where they are, with both companies noting Alberta is likely to see a stronger market than other provinces, particularly Ontario and Quebec. 

In Canmore, for example, prices have risen about eight per cent in the first quarter of 2023, and are expected to rise about another eight per cent by the end of the year, according to the ReMax report. 

It's a stark contrast to the cottage country hot spot of Muskoka, Ont., where the report noted prices have tumbled about 14 per cent compared to the first quarter of last year. 

"It's sort of indicative of economic factors," Ash said. "What you're seeing in Alberta is that strong buyer confidence that doesn't quite exist in Ontario."

Canmore also has a number of selling points that make it a uniquely desirable place to buy, said Brad Hawker, associate broker at Royal LePage Solutions in Canmore. It's a 20-minute drive from a national park, surrounded by ski hills and within easy driving distance of an international airport. 

New development has also been slow in recent years, he said. Given how little supply has come on the market in recent years and how strong demand has continued to be, Hawker doesn't expect prices to drop any time soon. 

"The trend would be stable or moving higher," he said. 

Richard Greaves, broker-owner at ReMax Alpine Realty, agrees. While he said demand has dipped slightly since last year, they are still about on par with 2019, previously his busiest year on record. 

He'd like to see a return to a more balanced market, to put buyers and sellers on more equal footing, and to allow locals to more easily get into or to move up in the real estate market. 

Like Hawker, he doesn't expect that to happen any time soon. 

"We've got an affordable housing crisis again in Canmore that, as a town, we're trying to address. But it's difficult and is made even more difficult with the resale market being so strong."

While the recreational market in Canmore may be particularly strong, buyers aren't likely to find a bargain-basement deal in any market any time soon. 

Although Royal LePage is expecting the national aggregate price for a single-family home in a recreational region to drop about 4.5 per cent this year, it says prices will remain about 32 per cent above pre-pandemic levels.