Poll suggests fighting Ottawa is a political winner for Danielle Smith and the UCP

EDITOR'S NOTE: CBC News commissioned this public opinion research in April, leading into the first anniversary of the United Conservative Party's general election win last May. The poll offers insight into how Albertans feel about Danielle Smith's UCP government and the Opposition NDP. 

As with all polls, this one provides a snapshot in time. 

This analysis is one in a series of articles from this research.

Danielle Smith's critics often charge the Alberta premier's constant battle with Ottawa wastes time and resources, ignores federal benefits and even backfires.

But it works from a purely political perspective — keeping United Conservative (UCP) supporters happy — according to recent CBC News polling. 

"There is a real close tie between being satisfied with how the UCP government is dealing with the federal government and liking the government," said Janet Brown, who conducted the survey for CBC News.

Using a statistical analysis that estimates the relationships between policy and supporting the government, CBC's polling data predicts what issues drive overall support for the governing UCP. 

Imagine all the polling data flowing through statistical software simultaneously to mathematically sort out the most meaningful — or statistically significant — issues driving satisfaction with the provincial government. The modelling reveals which issues predict the overall approval of the UCP government.  

Despite the sustained controversy surrounding invoking its contentious Sovereignty Act to beat back federal clean energy regulation, floating an unpopular Alberta-only pension plan and establishing a provincial police force, analysis of the polling shows that standing up to the federal government matters a lot in the minds of Albertans who strongly or somewhat approve of the governing UCP. After honesty, it's the second biggest issue predicting support for the UCP.

Smith's constant barrage against Ottawa is a winning issue with UCP supporters, helping the governing party keep the support it had among Alberta voters last May and underscoring the good news in the poll for the governing party. 

Despite a modest approval rating of 4.5 out of 10 among Alberta voters, Smith's aggressive stance against Ottawa keeps her core supporters happy. 

Historically, wrestling with Ottawa works 

Alberta's political leaders have waged an unrelenting war on the federal government for generations, with the most effective premiers acting as "guardians against a marauding federal government."

This political posturing works because it turns the federal government into a scapegoat, hides provincial problems such as health care and sidelines the opposition. 

The notorious National Energy Program (NEP) showdown over Alberta's energy wealth in the early 1980s sparked an upswing of Western separatism and a rancorous political battle between Alberta and the feds.

Ottawa wanted a piece of Alberta's oil wealth to help cushion the pinch of inflation.

But premier Peter Lougheed pushed back, cutting oil production by 15 per cent, tightening the supply to the rest of the country.

Fast-forward a quarter century. A different Alberta premier — this time, Ralph Klein — echoed Lougheed, telling the federal Liberals to keep their "hands off" Alberta's ballooning oil revenues. 

Smith vs. Ottawa

The rinse-and-repeat cycle of Edmonton and Ottawa clashing over rights and resources persists today, with Smith making it the signature feature of her political rhetoric.   

The radio call-in host turned politician came to power proclaiming, "We need less Ottawa in our lives." 

While heralding the expansion of the federally owned Trans Mountain pipeline as a "game changer" that triples the flow of Alberta's oil to tidewater, critics have called out Smith for burying her thanks to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in her public pronouncements. 

On top of the UCP's Sovereignty Act, the centrepiece of Smith's attack on federal intrusion, the UCP introduced legislation this year to counter — even veto — deals Alberta municipalities strike with the federal government for money for transit and affordable housing. 

Also this spring, the ruling UCP proposed plans to vet federal research grants to Alberta universities. 

When the federal government announced plans last December to cut methane emissions from the oil-and-gas sector by three-quarters by 2030, Smith blasted the proposal as "dangerous and unconstitutional."

Earlier this month, the UCP similarly called changes to the federal Impact Assessment Act "unconstitutional," threatening to challenge the legislation in court.

While her critics decry Smith's supercharged, anti-Ottawa rhetoric, the CBC News poll suggests that UCP supporters like the premier's tough stance.

Standing up to Ottawa is strongly correlated with overall support for the UCP. Voters who strongly or somewhat support the governing party's handling of Ottawa are 44 per cent more likely to approve of the government overall. 

But Smith's heated rhetoric could be a disappointment to Albertans if, as polls suggest, Canadians fire Justin Trudeau's Liberals next year.  

Bashing Ottawa works now — but might not in the future

Alberta conservatives tend to get a political boost from beating up on Ottawa when the Liberals run the federal government.

Polls suggest the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, is on track to win a majority.

The "menace becomes less menacing" with conservatives in charge in both Ottawa and Edmonton.

Alberta premiers such as Don Getty and Jim Prentice found it challenging to get Alberta voters to blame Ottawa for the Prairie province's sluggish economy with a conservative government in power federally.

Standing up to Ottawa becomes less politically potent potentially and considerably more "complex" for the UCP with a Conservative federal government, said University of Calgary political scientist Lisa Young.  

"It will be interesting to see how the Smith government adapts to that change and whether they're able to maintain that sense that they are looking out for Alberta's rights when they don't have … the foil of Justin Trudeau in Ottawa," added Young. 

If the polls are correct, Smith could face a Conservative prime minister for nearly two years before heading back to the polls in the fall of 2027.

The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Albertans was conducted using a hybrid method between May 1 and 15 by Edmonton-based Trend Research under the direction of Janet Brown Opinion Research. The sample is representative of regional, age and gender factors. The margin of error is +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. For subsets, the margin of error is larger.

The survey used a hybrid methodology that involved contacting survey respondents by telephone and giving them the option of completing the survey at that time, at another more convenient time, or receiving an email link and completing the survey online. Trend Research contacted people using a random list of numbers, consisting of 40 per cent landlines and 60 per cent cellphone numbers. Telephone numbers were dialed up to five times at five different times of day before another telephone number was added to the sample. The response rate among valid numbers (i.e., residential and personal) was 11.7 per cent.