Back of the napkin: When disaster strikes, what else does?

Political scientist Lisa Young uses online flow charts to explain the ups, downs and zigzags of Alberta politics. Throughout the election period, she will sketch out the campaign's big what-ifs in a recurring series for CBC Calgary.

What happens when there's a natural disaster during an election campaign? 

This question went from hypothetical to far too real Friday, as wildfires sprang up across the province and communities had to evacuate. Tens of thousands of Albertans had to flee on short notice, dispersing across the province to stay with family, friends or at evacuation centres. 

It seems wrong to focus on the provincial election against this backdrop. But there's nothing in the Election Act that lets us hit pause, and so the election goes on. 

Today's flow chart takes us through a couple of different scenarios for the wildfires, and what they might mean for the election. 

I didn't pick up much forestry or meteorology knowledge in political science school, so assigning probability to the wildfire events is way beyond my expertise.

So it's mostly optimism that made stability the higher probability outcome. We know some rain is coming, but there's hot weather not far behind. 

When (if) the smoke clears

If the situation remains fairly stable, Elections Alberta will find a way to ensure that voters who have been evacuated from their homes will have access to a ballot for their riding. It's early enough in the campaign to manage special ballots and advanced polls for those who are displaced. 

But if things get worse, especially as we get closer to election day, the chief electoral officer might need to use an extraordinary power that the Election Act grants.

Essentially, the law says if there's an emergency or natural disaster that makes it impossible to open a voting place on election day, the CEO can "adjourn" voting and set up another place.

But if the CEO believes that adjournment isn't sufficient to address the circumstances, he can apply to a judge to discontinue the election in any one or more constituencies and hold a new election at another day and time. 

There are at least seven northern Alberta constituencies affected by the wildfires. In some, the impact might be limited enough to allow voting to go ahead, with the kinds of modifications noted above.

But it is possible that the CEO might end up going to a judge to request discontinuation — a postponement — in a few constituencies, if there are widespread evacuations. 

This leaves us to imagine a possible scenario. On May 29, elections are held in 85 constituencies, and two are postponed. The NDP win 43 seats and the UCP 42.

This would mean we wouldn't know the outcome of the May 29 election until later in June, or even July! 

Unlikely, of course. But it's Alberta, so it could happen.