MLA resignations, new candidates in Alberta politics

The Liberal party leader resigned. Three more Progressive Conservative MLAs announced their departures.

A new contender stepped into the ring for the Wildrose Party. And it all happened on Monday.

Janet Brown is a Calgary pollster. Duane Bratt teaches political science at Mount Royal University.

Both spoke with the Calgary Eyeopener's host David Gray about the day that was in Alberta politics.

Here`s an edited transcript of the interview.

David Gray (DG): Janet, let's start with Raj Sherman. He's stepping down as leader of the Liberals, won't seek a third term as MLA. What do you make of that?

Janet Brown (JB): This has been rumoured for quite some time.

With all this talk about an early election, with Prentice not shutting down these rumours, he's forced everybody's hand.

I think he maybe forced Raj into a quicker timetable to resign and find a replacement for himself.

So it's big news, it means we have another provincial party going into the next election with potentially not a long-term leader.

But it's a different scenario than the Wildrose obviously because Raj hasn't exactly left his party in the lurch.

I'm sure they had meetings, I'm sure they talked about succession plans. Having said that though, it's not good news for the party.

WIth Raj going, with Kent Hehr running federally, with Darshan Kang running federally, they've only got two people in the caucus that might be running again.

DG: What's your read on this?

Duane Bratt (DB): Raj is looking around, his caucus has gotten smaller in successive elections. And that's not necessarily due to Raj, it's just an issue that the Alberta Liberal party has faced.

And he's thinking, 'I've run a general election in 2012, do I want to go through this all over again with a result that could be even more dire than the last time?'

I don't think this was coordinated with the other individuals. I think they're all making rational choices about whether to run.

But as we're getting closer to an expected election call, it just seems to be happening very suddenly with lots and lots of announcements.

DG: The Alberta Party has an announcement at 10 a.m. this morning.

Does this give oxygen to the idea that a merger on the left is a possibility before we get into the next election?

JB: Lots of rumours have been floating around. Maybe someone's going to cross over to the Alberta party, maybe there's going to be some sort of merger. I hope Greg Clark isn't calling an emergency press conference this morning and not really going to announce anything important. Because after the day the reporters had yesterday, they're not going to be in a good mood. If it's a 'What about me?' press conference, it's not going to go over well with the press gallery.

DG: Duane, do you see that happening, where we get one opposition on the mid- to left-side of the spectrum?

DB: No. We very well could, but I don't think it's going to be because of a merger.

If you're going to say the Liberals are going to merge, who are they going to merge with?

You can say the Alberta Party, which doesn't currently have any seats, or they'll merge with the NDP.

But if you're the NDP, you seem to be the only opposition party on the rise.

You actually have a leader, ahead of both the Liberals and the Wildrose. You're polling very well in the city of Edmonton, at least.

You've got four MLAs, all of which at this moment are running again. So you might just wait for the Liberals to wither away.

It wasn't that long ago— the mid-1980s— where the NDP was a very strong opposition with the Liberals with no seats. So I don't know where the incentive would be for the NDP to merge with anybody.

DG: You've also got a premier who appears to be heading towards public service labour strife.

If that happens, that's good news for the NDP, would you agree Janet?

JB: I think good news for the NDP just comes in the form of the fact that they're the only opposition party that's in a stable position right now.

The relationship between labour and the NDP, I think, is a little bit overstated.

But absolutely we've got labour strife coming. Those labour unions worked very, very hard to get agreements with the Redford government.

Those years were very contentious, and I think all those labour leaders now are scratching their heads going, 'Are we going to look back at Redford as the good old days?'

DG: We have three more Tories announcing they're leaving the party and politics.

Doug Griffiths, a former cabinet minister, resigned his seat. Mary Anne Jablonski and Donna Kennedy-Glans say they're not running again.

Duane, what do you make of these departures?

DB: I think Jim Prentice is trying to put his own stamp on the party. He needs fresh blood in there.

When he came in, one of the attractive features of Jim Prentice is that he was a long-standing Conservative but with few ties to the provincial party.

And he has made efforts at rejuvenating the party. Bringing in Stephen Mandel and Gordon Dirks, and giving them senior-level portfolios was one thing.

Moving Horner, Horne, Lukaszuk and Griffiths to the far reaches of the back benches has been another.

So seeing this turnover in the caucus really makes this the Jim Prentice party.

We're seeing more and more of a cult of personality around Jim Prentice. This is not about the party anymore.

How many ministers are able to speak besides Jim Prentice? How many leaks have come out of caucus? How much discussion are we hearing?

Everything is focused on the leader. He wants to bring in some of his own people.

DG: Janet, I want to mention Derek Fildebrandt coming in with the Wildrose, formerly with the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, any surprise in that for you?

JB: No. I think when Derek Fildebrandt left the federation, we all suspected he had political ambitions.

He probably had to think twice when the political system sort of blew up.

But he's a young guy and maybe this is actually an interesting opportunity for him to get into a party when he can play a key role and be a hero in the end.

DG: The apology from Danielle Smith to the members in High River and in Highwood. What do you make of that?

JB: Don't try that one on your wife. It's one of those non-apology apologies, I'm not sure it's going to smooth anything over with the people who are angry.

DG: And maybe don't apologize to her on Facebook?

JB: (Laughs) Probably not.

DG: Duane, do you want to weigh in on that— can she get re-elected?

DB: I think she's going to have trouble winning the PC nomination.

Unless Prentice really brings down a heavy hand and says, 'No, I want her in caucus.' Which is possible.

But even if she wins the PC nomination, I think there's so much anger with her, that they may coalesce around an opposition candidate just to defeat her, just to single her out.