UCP and NDP candidates chosen for byelection in Lethbridge-West

It'll be current city councillor versus former city councillor in the upcoming Lethbridge-West byelection.

John Middleton-Hope will be flying the United Conservative Party's flag against the Alberta NDP's Rob Miyashiro.

Middleton-Hope won the UCP's nomination vote on Monday. Miyashiro won his party's nomination earlier in the month. 

Lethbridge-West has been NDP orange since Shannon Phillips first won it in 2015 but the seat has been vacant since she resigned in June.

Political sociologist Dr. Trevor Harrison says the NDP will be looking to get an early victory under new party leader Naheed Nenshi, while the UCP will be looking to stunt the opposition's momentum.

"I expect that both parties will really go all out in putting resources in to try to win it," said Harrison, a professor at the University of Lethbridge.

Premier Danielle Smith must call a byelection by Jan. 1.

Meet the candidates

Both candidates have deep roots in the city, starting with city council. 

Miyashiro was a councillor for two terms from 2013 to 2021, while Middleton-Hope is currently serving his first term on council after being elected in 2021. If he wins the byelection, Middleton-Hope says he would resign his municipal seat.

Middleton-Hope is also known for his time as a police officer. He spent 30 years in law enforcement, retiring as the Lethbridge Police Service's chief in 2006.

He says this name recognition and leadership experience make him the right person to defeat the NDP. 

"I think what's really important here is to elect somebody who is highly electable — and be able to move on and become a part of government," he said before the nomination vote.

His opponent is no slouch, though.

Miyashiro has over 40 years of experience working in public service in Lethbridge, most recently as the director of the Lethbridge Senior Citizens Organization.

The byelection isn't Miyashiro's first foray into provincial politics. During the 2023 provincial election, he ran and lost in the city's other riding, Lethbridge-East, to the UCP's Nathan Neudorf.

Neudorf, now the minister of affordability and utilities, beat Miyashiro by just under three per cent of the vote. Reflecting on the loss, Miyashiro says the NDP's focus on larger cities may have cost them Lethbridge-East. 

"People didn't want to hear about everything going on in Calgary and Edmonton. They want to hear about Lethbridge issues," he said during his nomination announcement in August.

Byelection a referendum on party leaders, says expert

Lethbridge-West will be the only provincial seat up for grabs so both parties will be able to focus on the riding.

Harrison says the polls show the top issue will be the big ticket items handled by the provincial government like health care.

"There's been lots of publicity that in fact it's hard here [in Lethbridge] as elsewhere to find a family doctor. So I think health care will be very much front and centre," said Harrison. 

Education is also another topic that will be top of mind for voters.

Harrison says elections tend to be more leader-focused. So while it'll be the candidates names on the ballot, the election may be looked at as a vote of confidence on Nenshi and Smith. 

"I suspect after the vote is over with, we'll be looking at the tea leaves and saying, 'So what does this say not just about the parties but about the respective leaders?'"

Lower byelection turnouts a challenge

The biggest challenge for both parties, Harrison says, will be getting people to the ballot box as byelections tend to have lower turnouts.

"I mean, it's not unlikely you get 35 per cent of people who are eligible to vote turn up," he said.

When that vote will be is still up in the air, though.

Harrison says it will likely be called after Smith undergoes a leadership review during the UCP's annual convention in November.

"A loss in a byelection would certainly cast a pall on her leadership. It's for that reason I say I suspect that the byelection will be held sometime after that," he said.