Approval rating for Calgary Mayor Jyoti Gondek slides to 30%, down 6 points from June: poll

Thirty per cent of Calgarians polled in a new survey say they approve of the performance of Mayor Jyoti Gondek just over two years since she was elected, amid a year that has seen council grapple with a housing crisis, rising costs and a much-debated arena deal.

ThinkHQ's online survey of 1,138 Calgarians earlier this month shows the mayor's approval rating down six percentage points since the public relations firm last surveyed in June. Sixty-one per cent of those surveyed between Dec. 5 and 11 said they disapprove of the mayor's performance. Nine per cent said they were unsure.

Overall, Calgary city council saw lower approval ratings, at 28 per cent approval. Sixty per cent said they disapproved of council, and 12 per cent said they were unsure. Respondents were more favourable when asked about their own individual councillor, with 37 per cent approving.

The survey was conducted using an online panel. A margin of error for a comparable probability-based random sample of this size is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

In an interview, Marc Henry, president of ThinkHQ, said the numbers facing Gondek and council were the lowest he's seen in Calgary. For comparison, he noted Rob Ford's approval ratings that hovered around 30 per cent in 2014 as the then-mayor of Toronto found himself embroiled in controversy.

"When you look at the trendline, these are not good numbers," said Henry, who was chief of staff for Dave Bronconnier during his term as mayor (2001-10).

Henry pointed out that Gondek never really saw a so-called "honeymoon phase" as mayor, with a ThinkHQ poll conducted in March 2022 showing her approval at 38 per cent. Her predecessor, Naheed Nenshi, finished his first year with approval in the mid-80s, and by 2013 was still seeing a 73 per cent approval rating, according to ThinkHQ.

The most recent results indicate that Gondek receives stronger negative scores from men. Ratings of the mayor also tend to correlate with age, with those in the 55-plus cohort offering up the most negative assessments, the poll suggests.

"Disapproval for the mayor is more concentrated in established communities and in households earning more than $125,000 a year," reads the survey, which was released Tuesday.

Since ThinkHQ's last results in June, budget deliberations saw city council hand Calgary homeowners a 7.8 per cent municipal property tax increase next year. This poll was in the field fresh on the heels of that decision, Henry said.

"Particularly when you look at what's most important to municipal voters right now, or our citizens right now, it's affordability, and crime, housing. Those are areas where I think there has not really been a strong sort of coherent message coming out of city hall," Henry said.

The mayor faced controversy earlier this month after stating she would not attend the annual city hall menorah lighting, but Henry said the poll was about two-thirds through the field when that happened.

Gondek says polls reflect public frustration

Asked by reporters earlier on Tuesday about the possibility of negative year-end polls being released, Gondek said polls will reflect that the public is frustrated with everything going on in the world.

"The people that get targeted are those of us that serve in an elected capacity. And so we take the results of those polls very seriously, in terms of how is the public feeling, and we take action to respond," Gondek said. 

"It's very much like the city survey that we do to see what the priorities of Calgarians are. And I will tell you, every elected official at every order of government will tell you that our struggles right now are so intense."

Those struggles include the state of housing and the state of public safety, according to Gondek.

Coun. Andre Chabot said previous polls had included individual ratings for each councillor, something that hasn't taken place in recent polling.

The Ward 10 councillor added he seeks to be transparent with residents and attempts to find equilibrium on issues.

"I don't try and be one-sided on any of my decisions. I try and find some consensus or some neutral ground," Chabot said. "If that results in my having better numbers, I don't know, maybe others should consider emulating what I do.

"I'm not suggesting I'm the best, but typically I've scored fairly high on those polls. Maybe I'm doing something right. I don't know."

Henry said given the small sample sizes involved for each ward, those figures are not released publicly.

Environment poses challenges, says political scientist

Mount Royal University political science professor Lori Williams said that along with concerns of affordability and housing, Gondek has had to navigate a polarized environment in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, and has often taken a strong stand on issues such as LGBTQ rights.

"Frankly, at the time of the last civic election, I was impressed with anybody who was willing to run for office, in the midst of all the challenges that were being faced," Williams said. 

"There were financial challenges, there were health-care challenges. A lot of people were really desperate and angry and difficult to respond effectively to."

Given international issues such as affordability and inflation, the reach of municipal governments may be limited in some ways, Williams said. Still, municipal governments must advocate effectively with provincial and federal governments with the limited tools they do have, she said.

"And try to communicate what those limits are, while at the same time being sympathetic to the people that are struggling," Williams said.