Picking the facts from the myths in the Green Line LRT saga
Some arguments at the core of the debate appear hinged on political myth, not facts
Any time there's a political tempest, there are always plenty of details to pick through.
Those on different sides of an issue choose their truths to make their point. Calgary's Green Line saga is no different.
While there has been a rapid series of events this month that resulted in the end of the LRT project in its present form, some of the arguments at the core of the debate appear hinged on political myth, not facts. Some have been circulating for years, while others are new.
Here's a closer look at three:
Myth? Original proposal was 46-kilometre line for $4.5 billion
In a video released this week, Transportation Minister Devin Dreeshen stated the Green Line was created in 2015 by Naheed Nenshi and it was supposed to include "a tunnel running under the Bow River and through the downtown core."
While Nenshi was Calgary's mayor then, he actually didn't promise this.
When the Stephen Harper government offered $1.5 billion in 2015 for the Green Line, Nenshi talked about the vision for the ultimate 46-kilometre build-out.
Given its size, completing this lengthy transit line would take several stages to complete and many years. After all, Calgary's existing Red and Blue Lines still aren't done — decades after they first opened.
Council confirmed in 2016 a staging approach would be needed.
Nenshi actually supported an elevated line through the core until downtown property owners came out against the idea. They said it would throw Second Street S.W. into perpetual darkness below the elevated train and hurt their property values. Thus, the tunnel idea moved up the list.
To set a price required years of planning and engineering work. That didn't happen until after a review was done by the provincial government in 2021.
In that review, the provincial government, led by Jason Kenney at the time, assessed the various alignment options and approved the city's $5.5-billion plan.
Following a competition, the city's Green Line board selected a development partner in April 2023. It worked with that consortium to determine what could be built and for how much.
On July 30, the board said, without an additional $700 million, the budget would only cover running the line south to Lynnwood/Millican." Council agreed but the city was the only one of the three funding partners willing to put in more cash.
The provincial government approved that shorter plan, with Dreeshen saying on Aug. 1 that its financial contribution was "secure." Just weeks later, the province reversed its decision.
Myth? $600 million per kilometre
This figure has been bandied about this week by both Dreeshen and Premier Danielle Smith.
For the recently shortened first phase of the Green Line, the budget for the 10-kilometre stretch was $6.2 billion. So yes, that does technically work out to $620 million for each kilometre.
"That's just ridiculous," said Dreeshen.
However, that budget included more than just LRT tracks.
It included years of planning reports, engineering work, buying land and LRT cars as well as building a large maintenance and storage facility.
The alignment included a two kilometre-long tunnel and two underground stations. That section is vastly more expensive than any other two-kilometre stretch of the line.
As has been explained by the Green Line board, tunnelling is complex and expensive. At times, figures like $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion per kilometre of tunnel were used. With pandemic related inflation, it's probably even higher now.
Earlier this year, the Green Line board opted to save money by shortening the portion that would be drilled by a tunnel boring machine.
Doubling the length of the Green Line southward wouldn't double the budget as staying on the ground is a fraction of the cost.
The Green Line board chair, Don Fairbairn, said extending the line from Lynnwood-Millican station to Shepard station would require an additional $1 billion.
Without the tunnel, Dreeshen said this week he's confident a downtown to Seton line built in the future could be done for less than $6.2 billion. But there's no contract and no proof. A detailed costing report, engineering and design work have not been done. He said construction could begin in 2025.
Myth? The Green Line is dead
Following the 10-5 council vote to wind down the Green Line, Mayor Jyoti Gondek's conclusion was the project is dead.
About 250 employees with the City of Calgary and 800 people working with contractors will be losing their jobs.
Some councillors, notably Sonya Sharp, Dan McLean and Andre Chabot, argue it isn't dead. Council rejected "pausing" the project but they say it's just resting.
Coun. Courtney Walcott put it another way. The Green Line is dead but if the province wants to develop another alignment, council should look at it as a new LRT project.
He convinced his colleagues to pass a motion, outlining the criteria that any new alignment requires to meet the needs of Calgarians.
That list includes maintaining federal financing, that Calgary wants a single line that runs north to south across the city, passing through downtown, and includes stations in the Beltline and at the new arena with easy connections to the Red/Blue Lines.
Dreeshen was clear that while the government of Alberta will come up with an amended alignment and help with the cost, it will not build that line. That will be the city's job.
The city still owns the land it bought for the line and it agrees with the province that it should run from Seton to the new downtown arena. There just needs to be agreement on how the line gets through downtown and eventually heads north.
Even though she says the project is dead, Gondek sent a letter to provincial officials, asking that decisions be made now on some contracts that would ease a resumption sometime in the future.
Council heard that pausing the Green Line instead of winding down the project would cost the city up to $1 million every day between now and the date when — or if — a decision is made to proceed.
Council's vote to wrap up the project by the end of this year incurs a cost at least $850 million.
Meanwhile, the price tag to build a new line only goes up with each passing day.
For now, the province is paying $2.5 million to a private consultant to develop a new LRT alignment. That report is expected in December.
What happens next in this saga is anyone's guess.
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