Notley gambles her plan will allow NDP to hold Calgary
Notley's strategy must work if she wants NDP to retain most of Calgary's seats
A good rainstorm can sustain life in a desert for a year, or longer.
Premier Rachel Notley managed to get some orange NDP flowers to bloom in its own electoral desert — known as Calgary — in 2015. It won 15 of the city's 25 seats in the provincial election.
Some of those seats had margins of victory of less than five per cent. Our first-past-the-post electoral system allowed candidates with as little as 29 per cent of the vote to become MLAs.
Naturally, the NDP wants to strengthen those tender roots in what's traditionally been a PC Party town.
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It's up to Notley to figure out how to thrive in this harsh political climate and make the votes rain down again in 2019.
For now, the picture looks bleak.
Anger aftermath
Small business owners are angry about the carbon tax and talk of more minimum wage hikes.
It's unclear to many how the carbon tax will benefit them and its potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions isn't obvious either.
Many Calgarians are hopping mad again about their property taxes, which increased again this year fanned by a 10 per cent hike in the provincial education tax.
One thing Notley does have in her favour is the uncertainty in virtually every other political party that wants Albertans to think of them as a government-in-waiting.
Opposition parties these days seem more consumed by leadership issues, internal disputes or unknown plans to end a split in the small-c conservative vote.
Show me the...
If Alberta's first NDP government is to find success in the next election, it needs to ensure people see it as being able to deliver what Calgarians want.
The stakes are high, according to political scientist Lori Williams. She points out the NDP has no real track record here. People want help for the struggling economy — not anything that will make it worse.
"Calgarians are really feeling the pinch and so something that's going to look like hope for the future has to be sold in Calgary if she's going to win electoral success again," said Williams.
What the government is selling is a plan to ease the pariah status Alberta has garnered because of its high carbon emissions.
Like her predecessors, Notley needs a pipeline to help get Alberta's non-renewable resources to markets other than the U.S. Her plan is to boost Alberta's image by reducing its emissions, putting a real price on carbon and making resources more readily available.
Williams says Notley's strategy relies on not alienating the energy sector — and she is working collaboratively with the industry to accomplish mutual goals.
Collaboration not confrontation
After making dark warnings about what needed to happen to royalties, Notley accepted the royalties review report that left many in the oilpatch relieved because it provides more certainty, not less.
When the government wheeled out its policies to respond to climate change, energy executives like Murray Edwards from CNRL were on stage to offer their backing for the plan.
When the carbon levy legislation was unveiled, CEOs like Brian Ferguson from Cenovus and Suncor's Steve Williams offered quotes of support.
The government wants to show it can work with the energy industry, not against it.
There was an awkward start.
'Hard pill to swallow'
Chelsie Klassen, with the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, recalls there was some unhappiness soon after the NDP took power.
"In June of last year, there was an overnight increase of corporate taxes of 20 per cent and that was a bit of a hard pill to swallow," said Klassen.
But since then, she said there's been a much more collaborative approach by government on the energy file.
Whether it was the royalty review, the climate change panel or the carbon tax, Klassen said the government and industry are working together.
In particular, she said Notley's decision to accept the royalty review report showed that the government is serious about encouraging more investment in developing non-renewable resources.
Other fires
However, other fires have been started by the NDP that alienate it from Calgary voters.
Small business owners may have gotten a surprise tax cut in this year's budget but there's simmering anger about the government's commitment to moving ahead with raising minimum wages to $15 by 2018.
There's concern about the inflationary impact of those hikes on all wages while businesses absorb higher costs for their energy use.
The backdrop for this is the underlying concern about Alberta's economy.
Deficits and debts
There's the government's balance sheet.
The history books tell us that in tough times, Alberta cuts until either the budget is balanced or resource prices rebound to "save" us all.
We've seen this movie before. A generation ago.
In the face of a mounting deficit and slugging resource revenues in 1993, it was a choice between brutal cuts (Liberals) and massive cuts (PCs). Voters went for massive cuts — a decision that still has political echoes today.
But Alberta's NDP government says it won't slash and burn.
It doesn't want to put any more Albertans out of work in this economy by chopping spending. The government also says it doesn't want people to do without the services they need, especially health and education.
This means at least the NDP isn't facing any protesters complaining about cutbacks, something there was a lot of in the early years of the Klein government.
But what's also lacking from government is a firm plan to return to balance and to pay down that debt. The credit rating agencies have responded with downgrades. The preachers of restraint are out there but they're not marching in the streets.
Spadework
Naturally, after discovering itself with a sizeable Calgary caucus after last year's election, the NDP is focusing on what it can do to hold those seats.
Constituency associations are being formed in Calgary. Even though the election is far away, MLAs have been door-knocking to ensure Calgarians know who they are and that they stay on top of what Calgarians are thinking.
The MLA for Calgary-Acadia — and the associate minister of health — Brandy Payne said they don't want to take anything for granted.
"Part of what we saw in the last election was Albertans were feeling like they weren't being heard by their government and they wanted to see change," said Payne.
"We really take that to heart as the new government, that we have to be out in the community and hearing from people."
Strategist or gambler?
The NDP's path to finding a way to holding its Calgary seats depends on a few things.
It requires any opposition party not getting organized enough to present itself as a viable alternative. The NDP could be more secure if conservative-minded voters in Calgary remain split between two or more conservative parties.
It requires Notley's economic, environment and energy strategies to bear real fruit.
There must be a pipeline approval, which is something the provincial government doesn't control. Ideally, it requires an oil price recovery to give it a better revenue stream.
As Notley herself pointed out in a news conference at the end of legislative session, Albertans will see differences before the next election.
Its new energy efficiency agency is expected to show benefits. Public transit investments should be well underway. She anticipates emissions of greenhouse gases will have dropped and renewables to help replace coal-fired electricity should be coming on-stream.
Temporary protest vote?
Lori Williams feels that if Notley can deliver on all parts of her strategy by the time another election rolls around, some Calgarians could be willing to support the NDP again.
"If she manages to do that, she's accomplished something no Progressive Conservative leader could have done. Suddenly I think people will start to look at her not as maybe a temporary protest vote but as somebody who's got the vision and the ability to deliver on what the Conservative government could not," said Williams.
If Notley's government doesn't "bend the curve" on emissions, doesn't get a new pipeline, doesn't diversify the economy and only succeeds in costing Albertans money while it racks up $50 billion in debt, the reception on the doorsteps in 2019 could be downright hostile.
Calgary could again be a desert of broken dreams for the Alberta NDP, resulting in that caucus of 15 being just an answer in a future trivia quiz.
But in politics, three years is an awfully long time away and Notley is betting it all on her strategy working.