Slight hope for dreams of a white Christmas in Vancouver

If you thought dreaming of a white Christmas here in Vancouver was, well, just a dream, there is some slight hope this year.

A strong El Niño this winter means temperatures have and will continue to average above seasonal. Vancouver has actually seen the warmest first two weeks of December ever on record, with average daytime highs above 10 C. 

But over the next week, a cooler air mass will stay in place across much of the province. Add to that an unsettled weather pattern, with rounds of showers and rain moving in from the west all week.

If early-morning temperatures get close enough to 0 C, then Vancouver may just see some flakes fly on Christmas Day.

So what are the odds?

Environment Canada has also crunched the numbers on the odds in any given year of seeing the good stuff on the ground Christmas day.

Based on the data from 1955 to 2013, there is a 10 per cent chance in any given year. With a changing climate though, that chance has increased to 15 per cent with just the data from 1994 onwards.

While most of Canada's odds have decreased in the past 20 years due to a warming climate, on the coasts they have actually increased because of changing storm tracks.

While it's still likely that any flurries Vancouver gets on Christmas day will change over to rain by the afternoon, one thing's for sure — there's a 100 per cent chance of snow for our mountains.  

White Christmas definition

Technically the official definition of a White Christmas from Environment Canada is two centimetres of snow on the ground, measured at 7 a.m. on Christmas Day.

Yes, there is actually an official government definition. 

Since 1955, there has only been a white Christmas four times in Vancouver.