Thousands with COVID-19 could flood B.C. hospitals, but data gaps make planning tough, report suggests

A major gap in B.C.'s COVID-19 data caused by reduced testing capacity is making it hard for people to understand the risks they face and for the province to plan for hospital strains, according to the latest report from an independent modelling group.

The Jan. 6 projections suggest the coming weeks will bring extreme pressure on B.C.'s health-care system, but without a better picture of how many are falling ill, it's difficult to get an idea of just how many people will need to be hospitalized and when the biggest crunch will happen.

"We're talking about 4,000 cases in hospital whereas the previous maximum was 500 in this pandemic," Sarah Otto, a University of British Columbia biologist and a member of the independent modelling group, told CHEK News this week.

The group, which consists of experts from UBC, Simon Fraser University and the University of Victoria, argues that after B.C. hit its testing capacity limit last month, it's been challenging to track the pandemic's fifth wave or determine if public health measures are having any effect.

Right now, the province is prioritizing the use of PCR tests for people over the age of 65 and those with underlying health conditions, directing others to use rapid antigen testing.

However, the results of those rapid tests aren't being shared publicly, leading to severe undercounting of case numbers, the authors write.

Lack of testing leads to undercounting of cases

If it weren't for this gap, the authors estimate that on Monday, 3.6 times more new cases would likely have been recorded, resulting in 8,115 positive tests instead of the 2,230 that the province announced.

COVID-19 results from sewage testing could help fill some of the data gap, the authors say, but Metro Vancouver — home to about half of all B.C. residents — hasn't updated its wastewater surveillance data since Dec. 20.

The authors write that quick and widespread distribution of booster shots could prevent some of the worst possible outcomes of the Omicron surge, but third doses won't be enough to stop the strain on hospitals.

They also note that the highly transmissible variant has narrowed the gulf between fully vaccinated and unvaccinated people when it comes to risk of infection, but unvaccinated people are still much more likely to require hospitalization.

Before Omicron, an unvaccinated person was 8.8 times more likely to be infected by the coronavirus on average, according to the report. That has now dropped to just 1.5 times more likely.

Unvaccinated people are still about 20.5 times more likely to end up in hospital, the authors say.