Poll puts BC Liberals six percentage points ahead of NDP

The BC Liberals have a slight edge over the NDP heading into British Columbia's May 12 provincial election, a recent online poll suggests.

Over the weekend, Angus Reid Strategies asked 800 British Columbians which party they would vote for if the election were held tomorrow.

• 43 per cent picked the BC Liberals. 
• 37 per cent picked the NDP.
• 13 per cent picked the Green Party.
• 4 per cent picked the BC Conservative Party.
• 3 per cent picked "other."

The poll suggested support for the BC Liberals had risen five per cent, compared with a similar poll in August of last year while support for the NDP seemed to drop three per cent.

The poll suggests the surge in popularity the NDP was enjoying last year in the wake of the Liberal's unpopular carbon tax seems to be coming to an end, says veteran political commentator and former University of Victoria political scientist Norman Ruff.

"Since that time, all the B.C. pollsters have shown a recovery for the Liberals. And although it's not an enormous boost, it's enough to put the Liberals ahead and to put them within range of another majority government," he said.

But according to Angus Reid, the polling company's chief executive officer, it's still anyone's race to win.

"The most important part of this election is going to be turnout," said Reid.

"The Liberals and Gordon Campbell have a six-point lead. When we ask those people who are absolutely certain to go out to vote, that lead of six points drops to a lead of only two points," he said.

In the last election, the Liberals won a majority with just under 46 per cent of the vote while the NDP won just over 41 per cent.

Regional and gender breakdowns

The poll suggested support for the BC Liberals was highest in Metro Vancouver, at 49 per cent, while the NDP had 49 per cent support on Vancouver Island.

The BC Conservative Party scored its best support, 7 per cent, in the Fraser Valley and the southern Interior, while the Greens polled best on Vancouver Island, where they had the support of 16 per cent of respondents.

The NDP support was highest among lower-income voters and women, while the BC Liberals polled higher with men and higher-income earners.

Leadership lacking

But when it came to leadership, no leader scored well. Liberal Leader Gordon Campbell got the support of only 34 per cent of respondents, who were asked whether they approved of his performance. That result would be worrying for a leader seeking a third mandate if NDP leader Carole James had not scored even lower, with only 29 per cent approving her performance.

The most important issue for B.C. voters was the economy, the poll suggested, at 36 per cent, followed by crime and public safety, at 19 per cent.

When asked which leader would be best suited to deal with the economy, 43 per cent of respondents picked Campbell while only 19 per cent picked James. On crime and public safety, 31 per cent picked Campbell, and 21 per cent picked James.

James was seen as the most capable leader on health care, with 40 per cent support, and education, with 39 per cent, but neither of these issues were the top concerns of respondents to the poll.

When asked if it was time for a change in government and a different premier, 54 per cent of respondents said yes.

Online polling methods

Angus Reid Strategies conducted the poll by randomly selecting a representative group of 800 British Columbians from a larger pool of 100,000 Canadians last weekend to answer the questions online. The margin of error was 3.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Reid said this kind of online polling represents the future of polling because people no longer participate in telephone polls, particularly younger people who often don't have landlines.

Critics say the people who volunteer to sign up for the larger pool of 100,000 are self-selecting and thus do not represent a true random cross-section of Canadians.