Do big drug busts actually cause more harm?

On Wednesday, Surrey RCMP announced a significant drug bust, describing it as one of the largest in the detachment's history. However, advocates for drug policy reform say big drug seizures like this actually lead to an increase in violence, overdoses and other negative health effects.

Along with hundreds of counterfeit prescription pills, police say they seized dozens of kilograms of methamphetamine, cocaine, MDMA and 36 kilograms of fentanyl. Assistant Commissioner Brian Edwards said the significant seizure, which included guns, cash and cars, will disrupt the drug trade in Surrey.

According to researchers, there are two sides to that disruption.

"On a positive level, they're able to infiltrate a a group that is causing considerable harm within the community and a seizure of that volume of fentanyl means it's off the street," said Neil Boyd, professor emeritus of criminology at Simon Fraser University and board chair of the International Centre for Criminal Law and Criminal Justice Policy.

On the other hand, Boyd said, the disruption results in a struggle to replace the criminal organization that's been busted, which includes an increase in violence.

"From the point of view of the consumer of illicit drugs, that means that there's uncertainty about suppliers, it means there's uncertainty about potency. There may be a time in which people who are using fentanyl withdraw from use and their tolerance levels change," he said.

Thomas Kerr, director of research at the B.C. Centre on Substance Use and head of the social medicine division at the University of British Columbia's faculty of medicine, has been researching the issue for more than 20 years.

He recalls a major heroin bust in the early 2000s at the Port of Vancouver, after which he and colleagues tracked the impact on heroin use, prices and overdoses — which were barely affected by the seizure. According to Kerr, heroin prices surprisingly went down.

But Kerr said in the context of the current toxic drug supply, which has been blamed for 1,749 deaths in the first nine months of this year in B.C., research has shown a direct link between drug seizures and an increase in overdoses.

Academic research

A 2023 study published in the American Journal of Public Health showed a doubling of overdoses in proximity to opioid seizures in Indianapolis, where the study was carried out. The effects were seen for up to three weeks after the busts.

Another recent study, in the International Journal on Drug Policy, reviewed a collection of other studies from the last decade, finding that most linked law enforcement drug seizures to an increase in deadly overdoses.

"It seems like a really good idea on face value — let's just take the drugs away. We know that other suppliers will rush in to fill the void and we also know that even when a drug supply becomes almost non-existent, it's not as if people stop using drugs. What they tend to do is switch to another alternative," said Kerr, adding those alternatives can come with health complications.

The problem, Kerr says, is that whatever happens to supply, the demand remains, a point not lost on police. 

"We need to focus on prevention, not just treatment, so we can reduce the demand," said Edwards on Wednesday. "Preventing our children, our families, our brothers, our sisters from going down the road of using these drugs."

DJ Larkin, executive director of the Canadian Drug Policy Coalition, has read the studies showing the harm that befalls people who use drugs after a significant seizure.

"This amount of drugs are taken off the street — they will be replaced by something else. The question is will it be more potent, will it be more volatile, will it be less predictable?" asked Larkin, adding that the prohibition model, long enforced by police, has failed to eliminate drugs, despite regular seizures.

What could happen next?

Kerr said, according to the research, he expects the same negative impacts to follow Surrey RCMP's big bust announced Wednesday, including an increase in fatal overdoses and violence.

"What I don't expect to see is any real strong evidence of a health benefit, and that's the unfortunate thing. We are in an overdose crisis driven by a contaminated drug supply and we need to do all we can to save lives and prevent those deaths," he said.

Larkin said that, based on the evidence, for at least the next three weeks, people who use drugs in the Metro Vancouver region should be particularly cautious.

"The drug supply might change. That means using an overdose prevention site, getting your drugs tested, but remember testing doesn't pick up everything ... Don't use alone, use a little bit at first to test what it is and try to find someone you trust to purchase from," said Larkin.

For Boyd, who supports the four-pillars approach — harm reduction, prevention, treatment, enforcement — that has driven drug policy in the province for years, law enforcement is an important part of the puzzle. 

However, Larkin and Kerr both believe police should simply not carry out drug busts that are known to cause an increase in harm.

According to Larkin, police should instead support things like compassion clubs, where members can get reliable drugs, and advocate for drug law reform.