Annual deaths from extreme heat in B.C. could double by 2030 without climate adaptations: report
Future deaths and hospitalizations could cost more than $12B a year, Canadian Climate Institute analysis finds
Extreme heat could kill 1,370 people and send 6,000 to hospital each year in British Columbia by 2030 if the province doesn't adapt its essential infrastructure, according to a new report commissioned and funded by the B.C. government.
Intense heat waves could also cost the province around $100 million in health care and more than $12 billion in life lost annually by the decade's end, the June 29 report by the Canadian Climate Institute says.
The new report, titled The Case for Adapting to Extreme Heat: Costs of the 2021 B.C. Heat Wave, is the first cost analysis of the heat dome in late June 2021, during which temperatures soared to record levels.
More than 100 all-time temperature records were shattered across Western Canada, including in several B.C. communities that sweltered in temperatures of more than 40 C. The extreme heat killed a reported 619 people between June 25 and July 1.
The non-profit research institute's analysis says the disaster cost nearly $6 billion in human life lost, and $12 million in hospital care.
"All regions of Canada will need to adapt to these changes or risk repeating the deadly and costly outcomes of B.C.'s 2021 heat wave," reads the report.
The cost in human life lost, according to the report, is based on the "value of a statistical life" (VSL), which is described as an "estimate of society's collective willingness to pay to reduce the risk of someone dying" and can help assess the impact of disasters.
The report says it uses a VSL of $8.89 million per life lost based on federal government recommendations. It also notes that while the VSL is "not intended to reduce the value of human life to purely monetary terms," it is typically used by governments "to inform cost-benefit analyses for public policy."
Authorities 'aren't prepared': co-author
Future deaths and injuries can be prevented if B.C. urgently adapts its health and critical infrastructure planning to the new reality of extreme heat, says report co-author Ryan Ness.
"Part of why the heat wave in 2021 ended up being so destructive, so damaging and so deadly is because governments and health authorities across Canada, not just in British Columbia, aren't prepared for this kind of extreme heat," said Ness, research director for adaptation at the Canadian Climate Institute.
Ness says extreme heat events, which are forecast to become more frequent and intense due to climate change, need to be treated with the same urgency as planning for floods and earthquakes.
Their impact is just as wide ranging, from agriculture and food security, to transportation, energy and health-care delays, malfunctions and thousands of hours of labour lost, as the report documents.
"All this points to the cost of not doing anything to prepare for extreme heat and the importance of making serious investments in that protection," Ness said.
The report found the health system's response in 2021 was "disjointed and unco-ordinated," which exacerbated the distress.
Critical health-care equipment failed in some hospitals, while some facilities became dangerously hot and disaster planning protocols weren't always properly utilized, it said.
At the same time, 1,300 more people were seeking emergency hospital care in the Lower Mainland alone, the report found.
Workplace injuries across sectors like retail, agriculture, forestry and construction increased by 180 per cent during the heat dome, according to WorkSafeBC data, due to what the report called insufficient workplace cooling and awareness of the risk of heat.
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Recommendations to prevent deaths
The report is calling on the province to urgently factor the cost of lives lost into heat planning; to make shade and mechanical cooling devices available in residences and hospitals; and to consider heat-related risks in critical infrastructure like electrical grids and roads.
The report also recommends mandatory heat preparedness plans in workplaces; an extreme heat-specific disaster plan for health care; and automatic reviews of disaster response and planning following future extreme heat events.
In an emailed response to CBC News, Health Minister Adrian Dix said the province has taken "immediate action to protect people from the effects of extreme heat" in the wake of the 2021 heat dome.
That includes the launch of a heat warning alert system, distribution of air conditioners to thousands of vulnerable people and hospitals, and updating building codes to include cooling requirements, Dix said.
"While we continue to strengthen our heat preparedness, the recent report from the Canadian Climate Institute covers a range of topics that have been comprehensively reviewed by experts … and acted on by the province over the past two years," he said.
Ness says the province has made significant progress, but more needs to be done to keep people and critical systems safe.
"Extreme heat is not just a one-off thing," he said. "It's here to stay in Canada."
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