'Fresh blood' or 'same old politics' — will raft of new mayors, councillors shake up Metro Vancouver?

Every passing week in Metro Vancouver seems to offer more opportunity for change in this fall's municipal elections, as more politicians announce they'll be standing down. 

But expert opinions vary on how different the political landscape will look after voting day on Oct. 20.

Last week, two-term mayor of White Rock Wayne Baldwin announced he won't be seeking re-election.

Baldwin joins Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson and Port Coquitlam Mayor Greg Moore in their decisions to stand down. Other mayors say they're still on the fence.

In Vancouver, only two councillors of the majority party Vision Vancouver remain in the running, with Kerry Jang the latest to announce he won't be seeking re-election.

"That's potentially a very positive thing since it will bring fresh blood into our politics at a local level," said UBC political scientist Max Cameron.

Municipal politics as training ground

Cameron says all levels of politics could benefit from a fresh crop of municipal candidates because local government often acts as a training ground for new politicians. 

He notes that there have been many mayoral incumbents in the past few years, although he says that may simply reflect a high level of satisfaction among voters.

But Cameron warns that losing long-time politicians like Moore and Robertson also comes at a cost.

"Those people take their experience with them," he said.

"Being a politician requires a particular skill set and there are risks to having amateurs who don't understand the job, who come in with unrealistic expectations and who don't have the knowledge or the skills to be effective."

'New faces with the same old politics'

SFU political scientist David Moscrop is less optimistic about how much opportunity for change the new candidates will bring. 

"The question is, is it going to be substantively different, or is it going to be new faces with the same old politics?" Moscrop said.

Looking at Vancouver in particular, Moscrop doesn't see a strong electoral will for political change — despite promising results for candidates like anti-poverty activist Jean Swanson in last October's byelection.

He thinks the city has traditionally leaned toward the centre right and is likely to continue to do so. 

However, Moscrop says the biggest change in the city could come if the NPA, the leading opposition party, capitalizes on potential vote-splitting among progressive parties like One City, the Green Party and COPE.  

In past elections these parties have cooperated to various degrees, often agreeing not to run competing mayoral or council candidates.

But Moscrop says recent political factions concerning key issues like housing and affordability have created stronger rifts between the parties.

Campaign financing 

Both experts also differ on their thoughts concerning potential change prompted by new rules on campaign financing.

For Cameron, there's no doubt the change is a positive step toward a stronger democratic system. 

"There's no question it's going to change the way that campaigns are fought and potentially change the way our cities are governed," Cameron said.

"It could mean more effort on the part of local politicians to connect with local voters."

Moscrop, however, is less convinced that much will differ for the local electorate.

"I think it will improve things a little bit but I don't think we should expect it to usher in a revolution," he said.  

Moscrop says the parties who have traditionally had access to money from corporate and union donations will likely still have better access to resources and influential people, which will ultimately help their chances of winning.

One point both experts do agree on: it remains to be seen whether all this change will generate excitement and interest from voters.