El Niño forecasts warm winter for West Coast
A strong El Niño means warmer than normal trend continues — but what does that mean for skiers?
To buy, or not to buy a ski pass on the South Coast this winter?
That is the question that cannot be answered with certainty as the world heads into uncharted territory over the next few months.
A developing El Niño — which could be the strongest since at least the 1950s — continues to warm the waters of the equatorial Pacific.
This is changing weather patterns around the world as huge amounts of heat are released from the ocean into the atmosphere.
At the same time, the so-called Blob remains in place off the coast of B.C. This rare combination of events has never been observed before by climatologists — which is why the West Coast of North America is headed into uncharted territory.
What climatologists do know is that this set-up is likely to warm temperatures across most of Canada this winter, as mild ocean air flows from west to east across the country.
Environment Canada, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and AccuWeather, a private weather agency, are all agreeing with that outlook.
It's snow uncertain
But what does that mean for how much snow the West Coast can expect?
Precipitation has always been a tricky element to nail down, particularly months in advance. There are just so many factors that come into play when making a long-range precipitation forecast.
In past El Niño events, the warmer waters off the coast of South America often end up splitting the jet stream into a northern and southern stream during the winter months.
The southern branch is what Californians are hoping will bring much-needed relief to their epic drought — in exchange though for possible life-threatening floods and landslides.
The northern branch is what B.C. will be watching closely.
A weak El Niño in 2010 ended up keeping the jet stream well to the north of the South Coast. That led to well-below seasonal snowpacks for the local mountains — and famously trucking in snow for the 2010 Olympics.
An El Niño event between 1996 to 1997 though — led to a series of brutal winter storms that blasted Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland, and the Fraser Valley with more than 100 centimetres of snow at sea level. During this season the jet stream was aimed almost directly at the South Coast, before turning north across the Prairies.
So far this El Niño has already surpassed 1997 in terms of heat and size. Meteorologists and climatologists will be watching what the jet stream does in the next couple of months very closely— right alongside the skiers and snowboarders.
So stay tuned!
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