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B.C. forecast for drought and wildfire is bleak, but don't panic yet, say officials

Several regions are already showing elevated threats but precipitation could change the equation.

Several regions already showing elevated threats but precipitation could change the equation

Andrew Kurjata · CBC News ·
An aerial shot of a forest with smoke rising from one area.
Wildfire G90303, seen here on May 9, 2025, is one of 11 wildfires near Fort Nelson, B.C., left over from 2024 that have shown increased activity in recent weeks. (B.C. Wildfire Service/Facebook)

B.C. is already reporting some areas of extreme drought, which could spell bad news for the summer ahead.

In the province's first drought update of 2025, a few areas have been highlighted as regions of concern, including the Fort Nelson, North Peace and East Peace regions which have been recorded as having moderate to severe drought conditions.

Most of the province has yet to be assessed but Vancouver Island is also reported as having level three drought conditions, on a scale of zero to five.

A drought map showing high risk in the northeast, moderate on Vancouver Island and southwest and low on Haida Gwaii.
B.C. drought map as of May 15, 2025. Areas in grey have not been measured, yellow is a 'one' or 'abnormally dry,' while darker shades of orange and red indicates a drought level of two, three and four on a a scale of zero to five. (B.C. Drought Portal)

Dave Campbell of the River Forecast Centre says while conditions are not as dry as they were in 2024, they are still concerning.

The northeast, in particular, he said is now entering its third year of a multi-year drought where there are "long-term precipitation deficits" that contribute to dangerous conditions overall, such as wildfires.

Already, the province is battling multiple fires in the area that have reemerged after lying dormant over the winter months, a phenomenon that is aggravated by a lack of rain and snowfall and open burning bans are in place in parts of the northeast and Kamloops regions effective noon Friday.

Fire research analyst Richard Carr of Natural Resources Canada says his agency's forecast shows the potential for yet another active wildfire season across Western Canada, though he noted that many parts of B.C. have seen more precipitation this year than they did last year.

Forecast maps released by the agency show the potential for a particularly dangerous fire season in July and August, with parts of southwest B.C. marked in red due to elevated risk.

A forecast map showing the majority of B.C. has a high fire risk.
Natural Resources Canada's fire forecast severity rating for May 2025, which has a high confidence rating for most of B.C. and Canada. (Natural Resources Canada)
A map showing high wildfire risk in much of B.C. in August
Natural Resources Canada's August wildfire forecast severity rating shows extreme and very high risk for much of southern B.C. and Alberta. However, the confidence level in the forecast is lowered due to the fact conditions can change for the better, or worse, in the months ahead. (Natural Resources Canada)

Carr cautioned, though, that it can change quickly depending on what sort of weather occurs in the months ahead.

"It's not truly alarming at the present time but really, it depends on how much rainfall we get through June and the summer," he said. "It if turns out like 2017 or 2018 then, you know, by July we could have fairly dry conditions again and potentially active fires."

With files from Maryse Zeidler

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