From the shadows to the spotlight: Conservative surge shakes up B.C. politics
Political scientist says Conservative rise striking, but not necessarily surprising
Regardless of the final election results in B.C., there's no denying it: a blue wave has washed over much of British Columbia for the first time in decades.
On Tuesday, the day after B.C. Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin asked the NDP to form government, Conservative Leader John Rustad told reporters he's proud of what his party has accomplished.
"It was quite a major accomplishment. A year and a half ago, we had, what, two per cent in the polls and no MLAs?
"I'm very proud of the team that has been elected."
In 2020, the Conservative Party of B.C. had just 1.9 per cent of the popular vote and not a single elected candidate. Four years later, the party is the Official Opposition, with 44 elected MLAs provincewide — a feat that's been described as "striking" by one political analyst.
Trevor Bolin, a longtime Fort St. John city councillor and former leader of the B.C. Conservatives, said the party hasn't seen support like this in decades.
"They did fantastic," he said. "It's always kind of put on a leader, but there were so many volunteers. The executive did such an amazing job. I think that everybody who was involved, right down to members and voters, should be extremely proud of the outcome."
Right place. Right time
Bolin said the party's success is thanks to a number of factors — including hard work from volunteers, staff and candidates and circumstance.
First, Bolin said, the popularity and messaging from the federal Conservatives likely gave the provincial party a boost, regardless of the fact that the two are independent of one another.
Additionally, the B.C. United rebrand and ultimate demise at least got people paying attention to provincial politics, he said, and in many cases left some centre- and right-wing voters with little choice but to vote Conservative.
The Conservatives ran a full slate of candidates, each one local to their riding, something that is especially important to voters in more rural ridings, Bolin said.
"I think it was a little bit of everything," Bolin said. "I think it was perfect timing. I think it was also a lot of hard work."
Par for the course, analyst says
The Conservative Party's rise is striking, according to Justin Leifso, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Victoria. But, he said, it's not necessarily surprising.
Right-wing voters needed somewhere to go when B.C. United all but collapsed in August, and Leifso said that while not all would have voted blue, many did. So, while there was a blue wave, the rise of the Conservatives alone is not really indicative of a massive shift in B.C.
In the last provincial election, the NDP won in 57 of the 87 ridings, about 65 per cent. This time around, if the election results hold after the judicial recount, they won 47 of the 93 seats available — just over half. The Greens maintained their seat count from four years ago, which means the province's right-wing party has definitely grown its base of support.
Leifso says the Conservative Party of B.C.'s performance is more of a realignment of right-wing politics than anything.
He also said it's notable the party wasn't able to form government because incumbent governments are being challenged in other jurisdictions — in New Brunswick, the provincial Liberal party beat out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives in their recent election, and in Manitoba's provincial election last fall, the incumbent provincial Conservative party lost to the NDP.
In 1903, the first Conservative Party premier was elected in B.C. About 13 years later, the B.C. Liberals, now known as B.C. United took power. Another ring-wing party, Social Credit, arrived on the scene in 1952.
"Even though it is sort of surprising, we have seen these really sudden realignments happen before where conservative supporters … pick a different horse to hitch their wagon to," Leifso said.
"There was a split on the right between United and the Conservatives, but the Conservatives had gained a lot of momentum — and I think that has to do a great deal with the brand and sort of piggybacking on the popularity right now of the federal Conservatives."
What now?
Support for the B.C. Conservatives comes primarily from ridings outside the Lower Mainland. Aside from Haida Gwaii and a couple of ridings in the Kootenays, the NDP government is largely made up of MLAs representing Vancouver Island and the Greater Vancouver Area.
Even Premier David Eby sees clearly that his support is primarily in the most urban ridings.
"That division is a real concern for me," Eby said Tuesday.
While Eby says the NDP will be looking at issues around health care and natural resources in order to serve those communities that didn't vote for his party, Bolin said the Conservatives need to look at why they haven't been able to secure the urban vote.
"I think John's focus, if it were me, is really starting to figure out why there is that split. What can be done in an urban setting?"
And now that the NDP has a majority government, pending judicial recounts, the Conservatives will have their work cut out for them in the legislature — especially given that a lot of their MLAs are new to the role.
"I'm hoping that we see John [Rustad] start to put some bills on the table," Bolin said, adding that the Conservatives and the NDP made some similar promises, so there should be movement on those policies.
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