Absentee ballots in five ridings could decide B.C. election

There are at least five ridings close enough for absentee ballots to change the out come of Tuesday's B.C. election, a CBC News analysis has revealed. 

Three of those ridings were won by the Liberals and two were won by the NDP.  If the Liberals take just one of those ridings following the absentee ballot count, it would give them a majority.

But if the NDP takes one more seat, it would even the party's seat tally with the Liberals at 42-42.

Following Tuesday's election, the Liberals have 43 seats, the NDP won 41 and the Greens took three.

There are about 176,000 absentee ballots that will not be counted until at least May 22, according to Elections BC, but there's no way to know how many ballots there are per riding or which party they will favour.

Our analysis

To get a sense of how absentee ballots could affect the election's outcome, CBC News looked at the five closest ridings on election night, how many absentee ballots were cast in those ridings in 2013 and which way they fell.

Absentee ballots did not play a decisive role in the 2013 election.

CBC's analysis focused on ridings where the difference between the first- and second-place candidates in 2017 was narrow enough that it could be affected by absentee ballots, which typically comprise eight to 12 per cent of the ballots cast in a riding.

Courtenay-Comox

​This riding was decided in favour of the NDP by just nine votes and will be subject to a recount.

In 2013, when the riding was called Comox Valley and had slightly different boundaries, the absentee ballots were almost as close, with just 25 votes separating the NDP and Liberal candidates. The NDP had the edge in absentee ballots, but the Liberals still won the riding. In 2013, there were 3,505 absentee ballots in this riding.

Maple Ridge-Mission

This riding, also won by the NDP, was B.C.'s second-closest on election night. This is another race that could well be determined by absentee votes, of which there were almost 2,000 in 2013. Absentee votes that year favoured the Liberals by 121 votes. The split between the NDP and the Liberals on election night this year was 120 votes.

Richmond-Queensborough

This riding did not exist in 2013, so it's impossible to look to the last election for any clues to how likely the Liberals are to hang onto it. The Liberals won by 263 votes, and with absentee ballots typically accounting for anywhere from 1,500 to 3,000 votes, this riding could still be in play.

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain

The Liberals held this riding by 268 votes, but how absentee ballots will affect that result is anyone's guess. In 2013, absentee votes were almost exactly equal: 898 for the Liberals and 895 for the NDP.

Vancouver-False Creek

Sam Sullivan hung onto this riding for the Liberals by a little more than 500 votes. In 2013, Sullivan won by 3,200 votes and absentee ballots that year similarly favoured the Liberals. This year, however, the riding was much closer than most pundits expected and there are also more absentee ballots.

Absentee ballots are cast by people who are outside their home riding or voting area on election day. There are about 17,000 more absentee ballots this year than in 2013, according to Elections BC.

This story has been updated to reflect a change by Elections BC to the preliminary vote count in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain on Friday, May 12. A previous version of the story had the Liberal lead at 170 votes.