Ontario set to boom with B.C. and Manitoba even as Alberta swoons, Conference Board says
The Conference Board says Ontario is poised for a growth. That's badly needed good news, Amanda Lang says
Tonight's first order of business: A rosy view of the outlook for Canada's biggest province, one which — if right — would be good news for all of Canada.
According to the Conference Board of Canada, Ontario could grow well above the national average this year, aided by a stronger U.S. economy, and by a lower Canadian dollar making its goods for export look more attractive. And it will join Manitoba and BC as among the fastest growing provinces.
Given there have been few indications that Ontario has so far benefited much from either of those things, let's just say we hope the Conference Board is right.
— Amanda Lang
While the steep drop in oil prices this past year has thrown Alberta in a tailspin, it's hoped that it will soon be greasing the wheels of Ontario's aged economy.
In its latest provincial outlook, the Conference Board of Canada said this year Ontario will join Manitoba and B.C. as economic leaders. Ontario's economy is forecast to grow by 2.9 per cent, a full percentage point more than the overall economy. That hasn't happened since 2002.
A number of factors are cited as the drivers of growth. With low gas prices, Ontario households could save as much as $1,000 each at the pump. There is also a surge in demand from the south as the U.S. economy is set to pull ahead by 3.2 per cent.
Finally, the province's manufacturing sector could rebound off of the lag in both the loonie and oil prices.
But "the party appears to be over in Alberta," according to the report. Its economy is forecast to shrink by 1.5 per cent. With oil prices down 50 per cent since June, oilsands companies are making massive cuts to spending and jobs. Consider this figure alone: The oil drilling rig count in Alberta was down 40 per cent in the first week of February compared to last year.
Just next door is Canada's only province in the black. B.C. confirmed last week it will end the year with a surplus of $879 million, twice as large as earlier predictions. The province's finance minister said, unlike Alberta and Ontario, B.C. doesn't depend so heavily on the U.S.