BMO predicts recession for N.L., close call for Alberta

Newfoundland and Labrador will slip into recession this year and Alberta will be lucky to avoid one, according to an outlook by BMO Nesbitt Burns.

The growth prospects for Canada as a whole will be cut by one-half of a percentage point for all of 2015 because of crude oil prices that have fallen by half in the past year.

•  Canadian economic output goes flat in February

• Alberta's economy will continue to slide, says conference board report

"We estimate that the plunge in crude prices will slow growth by one-half percentage point this year, hammering the three oil-rich provinces the hardest," BMO economist Sal Guatieri wrote in the report.

While N.L. and Alberta flirt with recession — defined as two quarters of negative growth — Saskatchewan's GDP growth is expected to slow to one per cent.

Newfoundland and Labrador's finance minister Ross Wiseman acknowledged today that the province would have the two bad quarters.  

But Wiseman says it's not quite as bad as that technical definition may suggest, pointing to the fact that unemployment isn't soaring the way it has in previous recessions

"Nor are we seeing the huge shrinkage in capital investment. Incomes are still high, expenditure levels are performing quite well, relative to other parts of the country," Wiseman told CBC News.

For Canada, though, the pain may be more short-lived.

BMO believes the overall economy was in recession in the first quarter of the year, hit by a combination of a pullback in oil drilling and shutdowns for retooling in the auto industry.

Canada to rebound

Canada's growth is expected to rebound to two per cent for the rest of the year and the economy could expand slightly faster in 2016, the report said.

The slight rebound in oil prices, to close to the $60 level, could mitigate the downturns in oil-producing provinces. But the main reason to be optimistic is the expected expansion of the U.S. economy, which the BMO expects to grow at a rate of three per cent this year.

"Meantime, all other provinces are expected to strengthen this year in response to cheaper fuel and a weaker currency, with British Columbia and Ontario likely to top the national charts," the report said. "Exports should continue to lead the expansion, with merchandise volumes up nearly five per cent in the past year to March."

The low Canadian dollar, down eight per cent from a year ago, is helping to boost exports.

BMO points to the loonie's recent bounce above 82 cents US and says that is a short-term thing. When the U.S. Fed moves to raise rates — likely in September — the Canadian dollar will be pushed lower, to around 80 cents US.

The Bank of Canada is unlikely to move on rates again this year, the report said. BMO doesn't expect another rate cut, but Canadian interest rates aren't likely to rise until sometime in 2016, it said.