Think different? iPhone 7 launch Wednesday unlikely to chart bold new course

Apple is unveiling its new iPhone 7 and 7 Plus today.

Remember when this was a thing?

A new Apple product launch. Steve Jobs up on stage in front of adoring disciples, cheering the company's latest toys, and, of course, at the end, the now famous "one more thing" reveal.

It was great theatre, well produced, with a dynamic front man who was more salesman than engineer.

But the main reason it worked was the product. 

It was through these launches that we first discovered things that would change the computer business, revolutionize the music industry, form the way we interact with screens through gestures, modernize streaming video through the set-top box, and turn a cellphone into a smartphone. 

Today, we get a new headphone jack. 

Or maybe we get rid of the headphone jack altogether.

What to expect with the new iPhone

Apple's new iPhone 7 and 7 Plus are also expected to have new display technology, more storage, an upgraded camera, better speakers.

But one gets the sense that when Apple CEO Tim Cook steps on stage, if there is a "one more thing," that thing won't exactly change anyone's life.

I mean, certainly not like the Apple Watch did, right?

All sarcasm aside, the lack of buzz/growth/excitement/revolution is not entirely Apple's fault.

Besides the fact that Jobs is gone (and there are some who suggest his departure should not be underestimated ), Apple long ago left behind the little guy/underdog to Microsoft/counter culture position that it held through so many of its cutting-edge advances. 

Now, as my senior producer here recently opined, Apple is the General Motors of technology sector, only with a better cash position. The largest tech company in the world has sold a slew of once-innovative products but lately hasn't offered much more than incremental improvements to those products, and hasn't really given most people (other than true Apple acolytes) a good enough reason to upgrade. 

Does size really matter?

One can't say size is an impediment to innovation and growth, because, well, Google. 

Much of Google's innovation lately has come through the acquisition of smaller companies with game-changing technology.

But instead of buying other people's ideas, Apple seems more focused on buying back its own shares, to the tune of a staggering $175 billion US, by the time all is said and done. 

And even with that, Apple is still sitting on a cash reserve of more than $230 billion US.

To put that in perspective, as one analyst points out, if Apple's cash position were its own company, it would be the 11th largest in the S&P 500.

Apple is also dealing with a new paradigm that has seen global smartphone sales stagnate, in part because now everyone — even in many developing markets — already has a smartphone. 

"I think with personal tech products, especially smartphones, we're in an era of iterative updates and iterative growth and that's what we're seeing with this iPhone," says Patrick O'Rourke, a writer with the website MobileSyrup, which covers mobile technology in Canada. 

"People need a reason to upgrade their phone. And I don't think there's been one for a little while with iOs devices in terms of phones," he says. 

For the second quarter of 2016, Apple reported its first year-over-year quarterly decline in sales of the iPhone.

Samsung bucks trend

But overall falling smartphone sales were bucked by Apple's chief rival, Samsung, which earlier this summer beat forecasts and posted its best results in two years. 

Of course, that was before Samsung had to stop sales of its latest Galaxy model because of exploding batteries.

And to be fair, there aren't a lot of technological game changers coming from Apple competitors these days either. 

"Android devices, they've all sort of hit a plateau. The cameras are fine, the phones look great. In many ways they've caught up to Apple in terms of design. So it's hard to come up with something new and exciting to get people to go in and buy," O'Rourke says.

So are global trends the driver in Apple's decline?

They're certainly a factor, as are all the other reasons listed here. 

But in the end it comes down to product.

We may very well see something new today that is a game changer, that harkens back to the old Apple of days gone by.

But we're far more likely to see some relatively minor improvements to a once trendsetting device, by a company that has become more plodder than pioneer.