2 days of gains push oil up 17%, TSX up 3.6%

After a week with wild swings in the values of stocks and commodities, oil futures ended up gaining 17 per cent in two days and the TSX was up 3.6 per cent in the same period.

That didn't wipe out the damage done to the Toronto market in the last 10 days after China's devaluation of its currency triggered global market turmoil. The TSX is down 5.2 per cent on the year and 2,7 per cent from its level before the Chinese currency crisis began last week.

The Dow was down 11 points today at 16,643, but it has recovered its week-ago level after a sharp rise yesterday.

The volatility triggered by China's currency devaluation Aug. 18 lasted more than a week. But North American markets shook off the gloom by Wednesday, with a sharp recovery in the last two days.

TD economist Ksenia Bushmeneva attributed the relative calm in markets later in the week to a statement by New York Fed president William Dudley that prospects of a U.S. rate increase next month have dimmed amid rising concerns about the rest of the world.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the most important North American futures contract, finished Friday at $45.43 US a barrel, an increase of 6.7 per cent on the day or $2.87 and reverses the seven-week decline that had taken it below $38.

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Brent oil was up $2.62 or 5.5 per cent to $50.18.

WTI at $60 US would improve the outlook for North American oil producers, but it hasn't been that price since the end of June.

Bushmeneva said oil is not yet at a price that would cover operating costs in the oilsands, "and is well below the level needed to generate future investment [roughly $65 US]."

"We don't expect prices to reach that level until the end of 2016, meaning new investment in the energy sector," she said in a note to clients.

The Canadian dollar wavered, dipping half a cent in early trading before recovering to 75.67 cents US in late afternoon.

Dollar lower on interest rate fears

The dollar is moving lower mainly on interest rate concerns, according to Knightsbridge FX currency trader Rahim Madhavji.

The U.S. Fed has its annual Jackson Hole policy summit next week, which could provide further insight into how the central bank sees the economic situation.

That, in turn, could affect whether the Fed raises rates in September. With the possibility that Canadian rates could move still lower, that puts downward pressure on the dollar.

International markets were mixed, unsure whether the turmoil set off by China devaluing its currency was really over.

The Shanghai Composite Index in mainland China rose 4.8 per cent to close at 3,232.35, adding to its 5.3 per cent gain Thursday. Most of Shanghai's gains came in the last hour of trading, which led some to believe that Beijing was again intervening in the market to prop up prices.

"It's just the state-owned funds that jumped in. I don't know which ones, but definitely from the state," said Dickie Wong, executive director at Kingston Financial Group.

The Chinese stock market has now returned to the level it was at in March, before intervention by the state to encourage retail investors sent it soaring to unrealistic levels.

Japanese stocks were higher, moving up three per cent on news out of the U.S. on Thursday that second quarter growth had reached 3.7 per cent. Stocks dropped in Hong Kong.

Most of Europe was showing gains as investors shook off the turmoil of the past week.