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Front Burner Transcript for January 16, 2025

Host: Jayme Poisson

SOUNDCLIP

[crowd in Gaza chanting]

JAYME POISSON: Hi, I'm Jayme Poisson.

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[chanting continues]

JP: People in Gaza were celebrating last night after the news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

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[crowd chanting, drumming, blowing whistles]

JP: It was a desperately welcomed reprieve after 15 months of brutal war. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the health ministry in Gaza, though some estimates, including one recently published in The Lancet, put the death toll much higher. Nearly 2 million people have been displaced. The scope of the devastation is really hard to wrap your head around. Critical infrastructure from water lines to hospitals destroyed. A UN report said it could take 80 years to rebuild all the razed homes. The deal was brokered in Qatar, where negotiators have been trying to get an agreement since terms were presented many months ago. Under the deal, Hamas is expected to release 33 Israeli hostages taken during their attack on October 7th, 2023, that saw more than 1200 Israelis killed and 250 taken captive, according to Israel. In exchange, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. The outgoing and incoming U.S. presidents are both claiming credit for who finally got it done. Here's Joe Biden.

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JOE BIDEN: Well, you know, this is the exact framework of the deal I proposed back in May. Exact. And we got the world to endorse it.

JP: Trump said in a statement yesterday that, quote, "This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November." But there are still so many unanswered questions over Gaza's future and whether this fragile peace will hold. To parse through the details of that deal, how it was reached and what could happen next, I'm talking to Chaim Levinson, senior diplomatic correspondent at Ha'aretz.

[Music: Theme]

JP: Chaim, I want to thank you very much for being here today. I know this is a very busy day for you. I wonder if we could start with you taking us through the details of the ceasefire deal. I understand exchanges will be done in phases.

CHAIM LEVINSON: Yeah, we just heard from the prime minister of Qatar that the ceasefire will start on Sunday. And the first hostages that will be released by Hamas will be also on Sunday. We have 40 days of a ceasefire, in that time will be released 33 hostages. By the way, the exact number of the hostages is still negotiated right now in Qatar, the exact list. We don't know yet how many alive and how many are bodies, but Hamas has an interest to bring much more hostages alive because it will get, it will get more prisoners. The exact schedule, I don't know until now, because Hamas says he need some time to go around Gaza and collect all the hostages from the place he hided them, and he cannot do it now because of the war situation in Gaza. But on Sunday, when the ceasefire, it will start, he will be able to roam around for free in Gaza. He asked I think the last ceasefire for 12 hours a day. That is, Israel cannot send the airplanes for civilians in Gaza in order to find all the hostages. So I assume it's a mechanism that is, together with Qatar, United States and the Egyptians, that Hamas will update who is going to be released tomorrow, and then it will be released to Egypt probably. And the same time, Israel will release prisoner in exchange.

JP: Could you just tell me a bit more about the prisoners?

CHAIM LEVINSON: Israel is going to-- the details were not published yet, but Israel will release all the woman and all the kids, all the teenagers, that are the Israeli prisoners. And for hostage, Israel will release 30 Palestinian prisoners and hundreds of Gazians that were arrested during the war and are not connected directly to the war.

JP: There were reports today about some sticking points that held up the talks, and could you just tell me what they were?

CHAIM LEVINSON: I will not say it's serious. It's a lot of questions about the mechanism and how exactly it will be enforced. And very small details, but not so important. The big picture is clear. We are going into a hostage deal for 42 days. And during these 42 days, the most important part is the negotiations about permanent ceasefire. And it's a complicated negotiations, and hopefully it will lead for the end of war in Gaza.

JP: What do we know right now about what happens after the 42 days?

CHAIM LEVINSON: Look, it depends who you ask. And it's a complicated question because it's a complicated answer also. The main issue, it's under dispute between Israel and Hamas. Israel is not willing that Hamas, that Hamas will stay in Gaza. And keep [unclear] Gaza. And I assume Hamas is not voluntarily willing to give up their power that they fought for in the last 15 months. So it's a hard, it's a hard and complicated issue and situation. Now into this equation is coming in the United States, together with an Arab coalition that includes Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

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QATARI PRIME MINISTER: We have seen a momentum that started to build in the last month and we kept pushing for that, working together very closely with our partners. And I can say that what we have seen from the U.S. in the past few days, seeing a collaboration transcending both administration, was a clear demonstration for the commitment of the U.S. to reach to that deal.

CHAIM LEVINSON: But they're coming in with a lot of money, and the rationale is going like this. And during the 42 days, we will end the war in Gaza. People in Gaza can breathe a little bit, can go out of hiding. And money-- and food can flow in easily. A little bit, a little bit of starting to replace the infrastructure in Gaza. And this Arab coalition will say to Hamas, look, we are willing to invest a hundred of billions of dollars in rebuilding Gaza. In Gaza, the situation in Gaza, people, I don't know how many people understand, most of the northern part of Gaza, people cannot live in there. There is nothing there. It's just rubble and collapsed buildings. There are no kind of infrastructures. No water, no electricity, no sewage, nothing. Only to take out the garbage that is the buildings. It will take months to evacuate the area to rebuild it. So, this Arab coalition is going to tell Hamas, you will do it. We will give hope to the people of Gaza, but you need, you need to move. We will have like some kind of Arab-Islamic unity government. That you will not be in control of Gaza, so the Americans will agree to it and the Israelis will agree to it. And from, and your side, you will get some Arab assistance to rebuild Gaza.

JP: And just how likely do you think that is, that that is what is going to happen and that Hamas will agree to that?

CHAIM LEVINSON: It's a good question. I don't have the answer. And it's a lot of wishful thinking from the parties.

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QATARI PRIME MINISTER: Look, we expect from the parties to adhere to the agreement. We expect the parties to stay committed to what they have committed themselves to in that agreement. But I believe that it all depends on the parties of the agreement and acting in good faith in that agreement in order to ensure that no collapse happening to that deal.

CHAIM LEVINSON: And it's a complicated issue because it includes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It includes involving the PLO. And it's including the Egyptians and it's including the people in Gaza. So I cannot tell you that this process will be ended as expected. But on the other hand, what is the other option? Continuing the war in Gaza? Like after 42 days, that the people in Gaza, I think the people in Gaza really suffering from the war. To tell them that the war was going to continue for what? What is going to be achieved?

[music]

JP: You've written about the role Saudi Arabia has played in the negotiations. Israel has been seeking normalization with them from before October 7th. The Saudis have asked for Israel to recognize a Palestinian state for that to happen. And how did the Saudis contribute to the deal that was reached here? Could you tell me more about that?

CHAIM LEVINSON: Saudis are part of this Arab coalition, together with Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Egypt. And their role is going to be in rebuilding Gaza. And they have a lot of money. Not Qatar-- not if Qatar is a poor country, but. Saudi Arabia also have a huge wallet. And the Americans want to bring them in. And Saudi Arabia will say, look, we didn't abandon Palestinian cause. We are going to bring Palestinian state. Israel is committed for that. And our, but our main focus is helping the people in Gaza. We have the expertise, we have the money, we have the ability, we have the will to go into Gaza and rebuild it for the people of Gaza. And this is the role of Saudi Arabia. And it's also part of a bigger, of the bigger picture. Saudi Arabia wants an arms deal with the United States. In order to have that, they need to recognize Israel in another term, because many, many U.S. senators will not agree to the arms deal without any kind of recognition in Israel. And hopefully, it will, from the U.S. perspective, it will launch arms deal. The last one was 300 billion, if I remember correctly.

JP: One thing I wanted to ask you about, my understanding is that the deal that was reached today is essentially the same deal that was presented by the Biden administration in the spring or the summer, right? And so, why is it just getting signed now? Take me through that.

CHAIM LEVINSON: It's, I would not say, exactly in the same words, but a detail here and detail there, it's the same deal. And Netanyahu didn't want the deal in the last few months because he has a huge political problem passing this deal. And his main excuse was he wasn't willing to withdraw from the border between Israel and Egypt-- between Gaza and Egypt, in order to prevent weapons coming in under the ground from Egypt to Gaza like it was in the past.

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UNIDENTIFIED SPEAKER: The Philadelphi Corridor is a narrow strip of land running along Gaza's border with Egypt. But it's very strategic because Israel says that Hamas has used this area along the border to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip. The corridor has become perhaps the central issue in preventing a ceasefire at this stage. Israel moved into the area in May, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that Israel has to retain control of this entire border strip for an open-ended period. He is not willing to relinquish control. This is a major sticking point because Hamas is demanding a full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

CHAIM LEVINSON: So for a few months he said, I will not agree to the deal. That it includes withdrawing from the Gaza-Egyptian border. By the way, this, this condition, it's not Hamas' demand. It's the Egyptians' demand. They didn't want Israel between them and Hamas, and I can understand that. And what has happened, that the people of Trump came in, even Trump is not yet the president. I must say that the Biden administration invited the Trump people to come into negotiations because they said, we will not be here to fulfill all the American agreements. You will need to be here, so we will not do anything without you. The Trump people came in and they forced Netanyahu: Take the deal and stop stucking it, and detail here and there. It was very harsh discussions with Netanyahu. Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, that is very close to President Trump. It was here in Israel on Saturday. He had a hard conversation with Netanyahu and he told him: take the deal now. That caused the breakthrough. Today it was announced.

[music]

JP: I take your point that pressure from Donald Trump tipped the scales here, but this 15-month war has been dragging on with significant losses for Hamas and their allies, including Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and Hassan Nasrallah, who was the leader of Hezbollah. And not to mention, as we've talked about, much of northern Gaza is completely flattened. So is it also possible here that Netanyahu simply got enough of what he wanted out of this military campaign to finally agree to reach the decision?

CHAIM LEVINSON: I don't think it's, Netanyahu is 100%, uh, politics. This deal was be able to reached in last May and last July. Many, many, many people of Israeli soldiers will be saved. Many hostages' life will be saved. Many lives of people in Gaza will be saved. [unclear] political. He has a very hard right-wing coalition in government. People he invented and invited into his government. And by the way, they are still strongly oppose this deal also. But in May, June, he didn't want to take the deal and maybe risk himself in elections, because his right-wing coalition will resign and drag Israel in other elections. And now he doesn't have any... Between Trump and his coalition, chosen Trump. That's it. I don't, I don't see any rational reason why not to take the deal. No one is understands. What's the difference between now and July? What changed? What changed?

JP: What kind of reaction are you seeing in Israel from both the people and the government on this deal finally being reached?

CHAIM LEVINSON: The far-right wing is against the deal because... the really far-right wing, they want to evacuate all the people from Gaza and rebuild settlements in Gaza and make Gaza an Israeli territory. You have some people on the right are against the deal because some kind of, let's say, [unclear] listening too much business that will encourage other kidnaps in the future. Like Sinwar was released in the last prisoners exchange for Gilad Shalit in 2011. So it's a huge mistake. I think most of the people in Israel are supporting the deal, but I think also we need to wait to see what exactly will happen. How many hostages will come back alive; how many will be dead; if this is what ceasefire will be kept; if it's the end of the war; what will be in Gaza in the future. So I think it's too early to judge the public opinion. The first public reaction is, is supportive of the deal.

[music]

JP: So we are now 15 months into this war. And in addition to Gaza, Israel has invaded southern Lebanon, has advanced into the Golan Heights in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad. And as we're speaking now, what does Israel control of both Gaza and beyond?

CHAIM LEVINSON: The war in Lebanon ended. Um. Even, I think, Israel need to evacuate in the coming few weeks from the small parts they still hold in the southern Lebanon. And the deal that was agreed in Lebanon, Israel had 60 days to evacuate. The 68 days didn't finish yet. Israel entered the buffer zone between Israel and Syria that was agreed after the '73 war and took over all the military equipment that was there. And I think Israel wants to see where exactly the new Syria regime is going and if it can be reliable, that it would keep the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Bashar al-Assad, with all his disadvantages, him and his father kept up the ceasefire and didn't launch a new war towards Israel. And in Gaza, it's still, it's still to see, but I think Israel is going to evacuate and withdraw from all the, the area in Gaza. I think the main focus of Netanyahu is achieving the peace agreement with Saudi Arabia. Hopefully, this peace agreement also encourage the Israeli economy. The Israeli economy got a huge blow, of course, from the war. The economic situation in Israel is not so good and he's hoping that opening the markets to Saudi Arabia will assist that.

JP: And just, final question for you today. I know we talked earlier about how the Trump administration was very aggressive in their approach to Netanyahu here, and, you know, their were attempts to kind of strong-arm him into this deal. But where do you think this relationship is headed between the United States and Israel?

CHAIM LEVINSON: Trump is a very popular figure in Israel. Maybe is the country in the world that is the most popular political figure. And as Netanyahu supporters, I think Netanyahu is-- Trump is more popular for Netanyahu himself. It's completely different from Biden or previous American presidents like Barack Obama and Bill Clinton that was president during Netanyahu's first terms. 25 years ago, maybe 30 years ago now. And I think it's, it's an interesting situation for Netanyahu, because Netanyahu's claim of fame is, I understand United States. I know how to handle United States, I have connections in the United States. I know how to maneuver inside the Congress, the Senate, the media, the influences there, the money and the presidents. Et cetera. He enjoyed politically for [unclear], for picking up the fight with Biden, that is not popular in Israel, and with, for sure, with Blinken, that is even, I will say, hated in Israel. Now it's a completely different situation. He cannot have a fight with Trump. And it's all about how much Trump will be aggressive, how much he will be forceful in order to achieve his planning. As I wrote today, he will go to the finish line of having the peace agreement with Saudi Arabia because that's what Trump wants. And Netanyahu cannot go to Congress behind the back of Trump like he did to Biden a half year ago, and he did to Obama in 2015. That days are ended. And I think it's a new situation for Netanyahu. And it's a complicated situation for Netanyahu. We still don't understand. But Trump is not yet in office until Monday. And we don't know how, how is the second term will be different from the first term. The first term [unclear] be re-elected. We cannot, we cannot predict it. I don't know if someone can predict it. So we need to time to wait and see.

JP: Chaim, I want to thank you so much for this. You also just provided some really important context there that was so helpful. So thank you for your time.

CHAIM LEVINSON: Thank you. Have a nice day.

[Music: Theme]

JP: All right, that is all for today. I'm Jayme Poisson. Thanks so much for listening. Talk to you tomorrow.

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What's behind the Israel-Hamas ceasefire? - Transcript

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