The U.S. wants minerals. Ukraine wants military support. Can they strike a deal?
U.S. support is seen as critical for Ukraine's continuing fight against Russia's full-scale invasion
Ukraine has clearly grabbed the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump with its apparent willingness to share access to rare-earth resources with Washington, in exchange for its continued support and security guarantees.
Trump wants what he calls "equalization" for support the U.S. has provided to Ukraine in the wake of Russia's full-scale invasion. And he wants this payment in the form of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, metals "and other things," as the U.S. leader put it last week.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has travelled to Ukraine to discuss the proposition, which was first raised with Trump last fall, telling reporters Wednesday that he hoped a deal could be reached within days.
Bessent says such a deal could provide a "security shield" in post-war Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, said in his daily address that it would both strengthen Ukraine's security and "give new momentum to our economic relations."
But just how much trust can Kyiv put in a Trump-led White House to provide support to Ukraine, now and in the future? Ukraine may not be in a position to back away from the offer, with Trump's interest piqued and U.S. support remaining critical for Kyiv after nearly three years of all-out war with Russia.
"I think the problem for Ukraine is that it doesn't really have much choice," said Oxana Shevel, an associate professor of political science at Boston's Tufts University.
If the U.S. abandoned its support, Shevel says it's possible Russian President Vladimir Putin would then "be able to complete his basic goal" of eliminating the existence of an independent Ukraine.
Varied statements on U.S. policy
Trump and key officials in his administration have made varied public comments about Ukraine, leaving it unclear as to how his White House will act.
However, on Wednesday, the U.S. president said he'd spoken to both leaders, first Putin, then Zelenskyy, about the prospect of ending the war.
Trump has long claimed he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours — though the conflict is still raging several weeks into his new presidency. And while Trump has threatened Russia with sanctions and tariffs, the president and top U.S. officials say Ukraine likely won't recover land now occupied by Russia — whether it was lost recently, or during events that have unfolded since 2014.
Then there's the issue of the Ukrainian minerals, which have to remain in Kyiv's hands in order for the U.S. to access them — a point Zelenskyy and other Ukraine officials have underlined.
There are more than a dozen elements considered to be rare earths, and Ukraine's Institute of Geology says those that can be found in Ukraine include lanthanum, cerium, neodymium, erbium and yttrium. EU-funded research also indicates that Ukraine has scandium reserves. But the details of the data are classified.
Rare earths are used in manufacturing magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, in cellphones and other electronics, as well as for scientific and industrial applications.
A transactional U.S. leader
Tufts University's Shevel sees Ukraine's decision to dangle access to the rare earth minerals as a strategic move, and not necessarily an "unreasonable" proposal under the circumstances.
Shevel says Ukraine understands that it's dealing with a U.S. president who looks at things through a transactional lens, so its minerals pitch to Trump is no surprise.
Polish President Andrzej Duda told CNN this week that people need to remember that Trump is a businessman, "first and foremost."
"He has got a business-like style of conducting politics, he has got a business-like style of speaking about politics … and he took immediately a business-like approach to this."
Not a prior focus for Ukraine
Trump has said he wants the equivalent of $500 billion US in rare earth minerals.
Yuriy Gorodnichenko, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley, says any effort to develop and extract these resources won't happen overnight and it's unclear how plentiful they are.
"The fact is, nobody knows how much you have for sure there and what is the value of that," he said in an interview.
"It will take years to do geological studies," he said. "Years to build extraction facilities."
Gorodnichenko says Ukraine hasn't focused on developing these resources in recent decades, perhaps because it faces challenges in attracting the foreign capital to do so.
He also said that even if the U.S. and Ukraine could reach such a deal, it's not clear if either country will be satisfied with it, in the end.
"I'm not sure this is going to be a slam-dunk deal for everybody," he said, noting that it could also create tensions with other Ukrainian allies that have supported Kyiv.
Continuing dangers and pressure
The all-out war is about to enter its fourth year and the pressure has not let up on Ukraine.
While Russia may have failed to topple the government in Kyiv, it has reached a point where it now controls nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian land.
However, George Barros, the Russia team lead at the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, says Russia's position in Ukraine is growing more precarious as the war drags on, and Ukraine can take advantage of that — if it has help.
"The key thing that the Ukrainians need to keep the Russians in this vise of their own making is continued military support," he said.
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With files from Reuters