Trump gets credit for what looks like Joe Biden's ceasefire proposal in Gaza

Amid the relief at the prospect of hostages returning home and an end to the slaughter and destruction in Gaza, there are also plenty of questions about why the potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas — being brokered with the help of Qatar — couldn't have been signed eight months ago.    

For some observers, a key difference is an incoming U.S. president who Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu found it hard to say no to.

Donald Trump is putting "heavy pressure… not only on Hamas and the Qataris, but also on us to reach a deal," Israeli Channel 14 political commentator Tamir Morag told his audience Tuesday, referencing his conversations with officials inside Netanyahu's government.

Over at Channel 12,  its political correspondent Yaron Avarham was sounding a similar tone.

Trump "pressed hard, and he clearly told the prime minister that he wants to see a deal before his inauguration," on Jan. 20, Avarham said, adding that the draft proposal is "the same deal" that was tabled on May 27 by the Biden administration. 

That proposal called for a permanent ceasefire, beginning with an exchange of hostages and Palestinian detainees along with an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas of Gaza. It also included a surge of humanitarian support followed by a long-term plan to rebuild the devastated enclave.

A draft of the current agreement under consideration provided to news agencies such as Reuters by Israeli and Palestinian officials contains all, or nearly all, of the same provisions. 

It's unclear precisely what, if any, leverage Trump has been applying to Israel but in December he vowed that "all hell will break loose" if there isn't agreement.

While that was widely interpreted as a threat against Hamas, there may also have been repercussions for Israel.

Some Israeli observers believe that Netanyahu and the war in Gaza had simply become a distraction Trump didn't want to deal with — and that the prospects of being a historic deal-maker were significantly more attractive. 

"I think that Trump has other issues on his agenda," said Yossi Beilin, a former Labour cabinet minister in Israel's government and a key figure who helped initiate the peace talks leading to the 1995 Oslo Accords.

Trump and Netanyahu have a "very, very fragile friendship," he told CBC News, suggesting that while the two leaders may share authoritarian tendencies, they are not natural allies. 

More than 46,000 people have been killed in Gaza over the last 15 months — and the pace of Israeli bombing has continued unrelentingly even as negotiators pushed for a final deal, with 27 more dead just in the last day.

On the Israeli side, more than 1,200 were killed during Hamas's rampage through Israeli communities on Oct. 7, 2023, most of them civilians, with a further 403 soldiers losing their lives fighting in Gaza.

Hamas took almost 250 people hostage and dozens are still believed to be alive in captivity.  

Under the terms of the ceasefire, Hamas has agreed to return 33 hostages within the first 16 days, and then negotiate to return the rest. Israel has agreed to a withdrawal from most of Gaza,  except for a buffer area around the perimeter. As the hostages are released, Israel would also free more than 1,000 Palestinians detained in Israeli jails.

Biden's deal?

On Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden appeared to take credit for the breakthrough, saying the current proposal is largely the same one he and his team tried to get both sides to agree to eight months ago, without success. 

Since then, and through a series of failed negotiations, tens of thousands of Palestinians and more than 122 Israeli soldiers have been killed, and at least eight hostages are dead, some killed by Israeli attacks.

Biden, and his Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have been fiercely criticized by Palestinians, rights groups and even some hostage families for repeatedly caving to Netanyahu.

Opponents blame Biden's administration for enabling horrific Israeli attacks on residential areas in Gaza and for repeatedly failing to enforce so-called U.S. red lines, such as when the Israeli Defence Forces invaded the southern Gaza city of Rafah, threatening hundreds of thousands of people. 

The families of hostages with U.S. citizenship also wanted the president to cut his own deal with Hamas to free their loved ones, because they felt Israel's government was ignoring the Biden administration. 

But along with international pressure, domestic politics also likely influenced Netanyahu's decision to agree to a deal this time around.  

After 15 months of incessantly pummelling Hamas, the "total victory" the Israeli leader promised is elusive.

The militant group is still launching rockets into southern Israel and, over the last 72 hours, nine Israeli soldiers have lost their lives in northern Gaza, with more than a dozen seriously injured.    

While Hamas's key military leaders have been killed, the group has also demonstrated resilience by recruiting thousands of new members. 

"The mood is gloomy," said Beilin, the former cabinet minister.

"The government is saying, 'Yes, we are winning'… But you cannot keep going on with this explanation for too long."

Powerful voices within Netanyahu's governing coalition, however, continue to push for Israel to keep fighting,

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir boasted about the pressure he put on Netanyahu that derailed past ceasefire deals — and he urged his coalition partners to do the same this time.

Ultimately though, Netanyahu may have calculated that standing up to Ben Gvir and bringing the remaining hostages home alive adds up to a badly needed political win

"The far right is a burden for [Netanyahu]," Mairav Zonszein, an analyst with the think-tank Crisis Group, wrote on X. "He has an interest in returning hostages since it takes pressure off him and is a victory for the Israeli public." 

Hamas weakened

Hamas's weakened position was also clearly a factor in its decision to do a deal.

Despite its successful recruiting efforts within Gaza, its broader strategic position has deteriorated since May.

Its military leader and Oct. 7 mastermind Yahya Sinwar was killed by Israeli troops in October. Israel also assassinated much of the leadership of its key ally Hezbollah, in Lebanon.  

Iran, one of Hamas's key benefactors and an important supplier of military equipment, has also been weakened by Israeli attacks. 

In Khan Younis on Tuesday, amid a city of tents populated by hundreds of thousands of people driven from their homes by war, people told CBC News they hoped the militant group does not sabotage the chance for them to start their lives again.

"We hope that Hamas agrees with this negotiation and tries to end the suffering of our Palestinians," said Hala Abu Dabaa, 30. 

Alaa Awda, 32, said much the same thing.

"After this war ends I hope we live in peace, we can build our homes again and live a life like others from all over the world."