Getting a truce between Hamas and Israel was excruciating. Now comes the hard part
There are plenty of ways the agreement between Hamas and Israel to end the war in Gaza could fail
The contrasting reactions between Palestinians and Israelis to the long-awaited news of an impending hostage exchange and ceasefire have been telling.
As word of an agreement spread across Gaza, there was jubilation and joy that the devastation inflicted by Israel's bombs might finally end and that hundreds of thousands of displaced people might be able to return to their former neighbourhoods, even if their dwellings have been turned to rubble.
The United Nations estimates more than two-thirds of the buildings in Gaza have been destroyed or damaged. The unrelenting Israeli bombardment over the last 15 months has also killed more than 46,500 people, according to Palestinian officials.
In the occupied West Bank, there were also celebrations amid claims of victory. Hundreds of Palestinians serving jail sentences in Israeli prisons — some for violent crimes — are set to be freed to return to their families, along with many others who were detained without ever facing a trial.
But in the streets of Jerusalem on Thursday morning, there was no such euphoria. One group of protesters draped Israeli flags over caskets to symbolize the hostages they say the deal will likely leave behind in Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel's cabinet, which has still to officially endorse the deal, delayed a morning vote on the agreement, accusing Hamas of reneging on it just hours after it was signed.
Under the deal reached on Wednesday, 33 hostages are set to be released over the next six weeks in exchange for hundreds of Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Israeli forces will pull back from many areas in Gaza, hundreds of thousands of Palestinians would be able to return to what's left of their homes, and there would be a surge of humanitarian assistance.
With roughly 30 detainees and prisoners released for every Israeli hostage, as many as 1,000 Palestinians could be released. More than 60 Israelis are believed to be still alive and held captive in Gaza, but only the very young or very sick and young women will be included in the first group to be returned, beginning on Sunday.
Just Asking on CBC Radio wants to know: what questions do you have about a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel — and what comes next for Gaza? Fill out the details on this form and send us your questions ahead of our show this Saturday, Jan. 18.
The announced deal has split the country.
"Israelis are very happy about the deal, and simultaneously tormented and agonizing over it," Dahlia Scheindlin, a Canadian Israeli pollster and political analyst based in Tel Aviv, told the BBC.
While acknowledging that 33 hostages would be released in the first phase, "nobody knows if it will actually reach a second phase."
Divisions among families of hostages
The only pause in the war came in November 2023, when 105 captives were freed by Hamas. But that ceasefire collapsed.
That pause came nearly two months after militants from Hamas and other groups in Gaza rampaged through southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking roughly 250 hostages, according to Israeli government tallies. In the war that followed, Israel says 405 of its soldiers died, as have some of the hostages, either by execution or accidentally during Israeli attacks.
Even before U.S. President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump made competing statements this week taking credit for the deal, there was widespread talk in Israel of betrayal. Israeli media has run stories alleging secret deals between Netanyahu and his far-right partners to resume the war after the initial six-week pause and damn the hostages to their fate.
Groups representing the families of hostages in Gaza appear especially divided. The largest, the Hostage and Missing Families Forum, which has taken over a Tel Aviv square for the past 15 months and held constant rallies to try to keep the plight of their loved ones in the public eye, said they "welcomed with overwhelming joy and relief the agreement to bring our loved ones home."
But the more hardline Tikva Forum of Hostages' Families slammed the agreement.
"This deal leaves dozens of hostages behind in Gaza," it said in a release. "Do not be part of a government that betrays dozens of hostages, leaving them behind," it said, urging members of Netanyahu's cabinet not to support the deal.
Many Israelis appear to share the fear that the chances of reaching a Phase 2 of the deal are low — either because Hamas will break the agreement or Netanyahu's government will.
Under the terms of the three-phase deal, negotiations over the release of hostages in Phase 2 would begin 16 days from Sunday's implementation.
Hamas persists, despite being weakened
The truce will face enormous tests if it is to eventually deliver all the hostages back to Israel and return more than 1,000 Palestinian detainees to their families.
Even as the deal was being announced, Israeli warplanes continued to inflict carnage, with attacks Wednesday night and Thursday morning leaving dozens of people dead in Gaza City and northern Gaza, according to Palestinian medics.
Many times over the past 15 months, Netanyahu has underscored that he would settle for no less than "total victory." That meant the defeat of Hamas, freedom for the hostages and creating conditions where militant groups in Gaza could never launch attacks into Israel again.
For many Israelis waking up Thursday morning, the agreement signed in Qatar appears to fall very short of that. While Hamas has been badly weakened and its top leadership killed, U.S. officials said Wednesday that the group also appears to have been able to recruit many new members to replace the ones it has lost.
In a statement, Hamas said the "ceasefire agreement and the cessation of war in Gaza is considered an achievement for our people" and a "turning point" on the "path to freedom." Iran's rulers, who back Hamas, called it an "Israeli retreat."
Even assuming the two sides can move forward on implementing a Phase 2 of the deal, Israel's government has refused to discuss what kind of Palestinian government it envisions ruling Gaza in the longer term, the key aspect of Phase 3.
Netanyahu has repeatedly and emphatically ruled out having representatives of either Hamas or a reformed Palestinian Authority — which has something akin to municipality status in the occupied West Bank — take power in Gaza.
Without any mention of a commitment to establishing a Palestinian state or ending the nearly six-decade-long Israeli occupation, the ceasefire may end the immediate fighting — but the broader conflict will continue.
Corrections
- A previous version of this story said Israel had occupied Palestinian territories for seven decades. In fact, it is closer to six decades.Jan 16, 2025 11:48 AM EST
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
