Trudeau removes himself from the equation, but the math doesn't get much easier
The prime minister created two challenges — one for himself and one for his successor
On the day he finally conceded to the obvious, Justin Trudeau looked appropriately humbled. For maybe the first time, he looked older. And the affectation that often marked his public remarks seemed drained out of him.
"This country deserves a real choice in the next election and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election," he said.
After months of slow-burning dissent and unease, "internal battles" had indeed made Trudeau's position nearly untenable. In the wake of Chrystia Freeland's bombshell, the Liberal Party's Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic MPs — accounting for more than 80 per cent of Trudeau's parliamentary caucus — had discussed matters and come to the conclusion that he needed to resign.
The only reason to wonder what Trudeau might do next was the fact that he hadn't already conceded defeat at any point in the previous six months. And the only real question is whether he should have done it sooner.
But in announcing his intention to step away now, he creates two challenges — one for himself and one for his successor.
Trudeau's final chapter will feature the return of Trump
Like every previous prime minister to resign between elections, Trudeau will remain prime minister until his party has chosen a new leader. But in this case that will mean Trudeau is still prime minister on Jan. 20 when Donald Trump is sworn in again as president of the United States. One way or another, the final chapter of Trudeau's time as prime minister will involve leading Canada's initial response to whatever comes in the first days or weeks of another Trump presidency.
It's impossible to predict with any certainty what that might entail, but it could very plausibly involve a move toward the tariffs that Trump has threatened.
The prorogation of Parliament won't necessarily handcuff Trudeau — the federal government can still implement retaliatory tariffs without parliamentary approval. But he may have to manage a response without whichever current cabinet ministers choose to enter the leadership race — either because they will step outside cabinet or because they will be otherwise occupied.
And the practical and political stakes are not small. Tariffs could have very real impacts on the Canadian economy. And Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, among others, will be quick to blame Trudeau and the Liberals for any tumult that ensues.
While Trudeau is managing that most important bilateral relationship, the Liberal Party will have to get on with the business of choosing his successor.
Where do the Liberals go from here?
Officially, Parliament is not due to resume until March 24, but the Liberals will plausibly want or need to have a leader in place sometime before that. If a new leader wants to meet the House of Commons, he or she will want at least some time to get ready to do so — a throne speech will have to be drafted and a new cabinet will likely have to be chosen.
Political parties in Canada have more recently taken a rather leisurely approach to pick new leaders — the last Liberal leadership campaign was 10 months long, the last Conservative leadership election took eight months. By comparison, this Liberal leadership campaign will be a sprint — perhaps a little shorter or longer than two months.
The next leader could also be forced into a general election very shortly after he or she becomes prime minister. Circumstances can always change, but the opposition parties are currently still vowing to defeat the Liberal government at the earliest opportunity — and that opportunity could come within a couple days of Parliament reconvening. Before April Fool's Day, a new prime minister could be contesting an election.
(The new prime minister could also conceivably choose to skip a throne speech and proceed directly to an election.)
In an ideal world, the Liberals might have hoped to have more time. Trudeau might have taken his party's defeat in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul's last June as the sign that it was time for him to remove himself from the equation. A new prime minister might have been in place before Trump was inaugurated.
Of course, the world is rarely ideal. Trudeau's father may have given us the lyrical idea of a leader parting after a "walk in the snow" — as if Pierre Trudeau's exit was scripted by Robert Frost — but political change is rarely graceful.
In the earliest iteration of his leadership, Trudeau was strategically creative and daring — pledging to legalize marijuana, kicking senators out of his caucus, directly taking on the attack ads that were launched against him. His successor may have to summon some of that same spirit in the next few months — even if only to limit the damage the Liberal Party suffers in the next election.
"Removing me from the equation as the leader who will fight the next election for the Liberal Party should also decrease the level of polarization that we're seeing right now in the House and in Canadian politics," Trudeau said, perhaps a bit hopefully, "and allow people to actually focus on serving Canadians in this House and with their work, the way Canadians deserve."
Trudeau's exit may reveal how much of the current political polling — the Conservative lead and the Liberals' struggles — was rooted in his continued presence. His impending resignation will also force the Liberal Party to decide — however quickly — what and how it wants to be without him, questions it hasn't had to ask in more than 12 years.
Trudeau may have needed to remove himself from the equation, but the calculus does not get much easier.
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