Trudeau shuffles the deck while the nation waits for him to make up his mind
Until Trudeau says whether he's staying or going, his cabinet shuffle is a sideshow
The 29th ministry since Confederation now has some new members — individuals who could one day become vital or important ministers of the Crown.
But the only minister who currently matters is the prime minister And unless or until the question of the prime minister's future is answered, not much else matters.
The shuffle that was executed on Friday was likely necessary. Due to recent resignations — including Chrystia Freeland's shocking exit on Monday — several remaining ministers were carrying extra responsibilities. A handful of other ministers had said they wouldn't be running in the next election and were due to be replaced by MPs who will be.
So the official business of government went on, even while the future of the government's leader continued to hang in the balance.
Emerging from the first meeting of the new cabinet, Trudeau said the discussion was focused entirely on relations with the United States.
"We have a lot of work to do and that's what we're focused on," he said.
All other media questions went unanswered.
A measure of clarity came in the form of another open letter, this one from NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh. The NDP's exact disposition toward the government had been unclear in recent days, but on Friday morning, as new ministers filed into Rideau Hall, Singh issued what seemed to be categorical statement.
"No matter who is leading the Liberal Party, this government's time is up," he wrote. "We will put forward a direct motion of non-confidence in the next sitting of the House of Commons."
Singh's commitment — if he follows through on it — would ensure that an election is coming sooner rather than later. The only questions left are exactly when that will happen, and who will be leading the Liberal Party when it does.
'Where others might see peril, he sees opportunity'
If Justin Trudeau has an answer to the question of whether a leadership race will be necessary, he's keeping it to himself. In fact, he hasn't really said much of anything since Monday's political earthquake. And the fact that he hasn't said anything suggests he doesn't yet know what to say.
That's a remarkable situation in and of itself. But decisions have never been made fast in this government — and few decisions have ever been bigger than this one.
It's interesting that Trudeau even thinks there's a decision here for him to make. Other leaders in the same situation might have deduced by now that it's time to exit, given the way the he winds of fate moved decisively against this prime minister over the past six months.
"He's an extraordinary individual and probably, in retrospect or in history, he'll be treated very well," Liberal MP John McKay told the CBC's Power & Politics on Thursday.
"But his perception after 50 years of living in a, if you will, political aristocratic bubble is different than the perception or the reality that you and I live in. And it enables him to do extraordinary things and I think he has done extraordinary things.
"But it also leaves a bit of a blind spot and so, where others might see peril, he sees opportunity. And so how he will make the decision, I just don't know."
Trudeau's tolerance for risk might explain some of what he has accomplished as leader of the Liberal Party and prime minister. It also might explain why he has not yet walked away.
His party trails in the polls by 20 points. His finance minister and trusted lieutenant has quit in the most explosive manner possible. And now 19 MPs have publicly called for him to step aside — Jenica Atwin, the MP for Fredericton, has said she won't run under the Liberal banner if Trudeau remains as leader.
"Our leader has become a key obstacle preventing many progressive voters who have supported our work from doing so again in the next election," Liberal MP Rob Oliphant said in a statement released Friday morning.
And Trudeau might still ask himself whether it could get even worse.
If he tries to stay, will other cabinet ministers depart? How many more Liberal MPs might come out against him? Will others decline to seek re-election?
Even if he does stay, his remaining time in office seems now to be very limited. If the House of Commons reconvenes as scheduled — and if Jagmeet Singh sticks to his commitment — a vote of non-confidence could come as soon as the last week of January or the first week of February.
(Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre said he was going to write to the Governor General about getting the House reconvened earlier, but Mary Simon doesn't obviously have any grounds to intervene here. One of Simon's predecessors notably did not refuse a request from Poilievre's former boss, Stephen Harper, when he sought prorogation in 2008 to avoid a vote of non-confidence.)
One thing that could delay a vote against the government is the prorogation of Parliament — which would effectively pause all business of the House until it can be recalled for a new throne speech. But perhaps the only good reason to prorogue Parliament right now would be if the Liberal Party needs to pick a new leader.
The prime minister needed a full cabinet in place, if only for maintaining a sense of normalcy over the next two weeks. And on a different day, some of his new ministers — David McGuinty, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, Rachel Bendayan — might be hailed as inspired, or at least interesting, choices. In a different timeline, someone somewhere is speculating excitedly about what Anita Anand might do in her new role to break down internal trade barriers between provinces.
But unless or until Trudeau's own future is clear, very little else about this government matters.
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