White Christmas unlikely for Windsor-Essex this year

If you're dreaming of a white Christmas in Windsor-Essex, you might have to keep dreaming. 

Environment Canada senior climatologist Dave Phillips says things can still change at this stage — but with temperatures above freezing this week, snow for Christmas is pretty unlikely.

"Those warm temperatures, the sun coming out, I think it's a done deal. It's not going to be one," Phillips said. 

It's also an El Niño year, which means a milder winter, he says. El Niño is an oceanic and atmospheric occurrence that brings a band of warm water to the Pacific Ocean. 

Even though the white stuff will be scarce, Phillips says there's a bit of a silver lining.

He recalled last year, when snowstorms brought treacherous conditions to many areas of the province and the country over the Christmas holidays.

"Christmas was almost cancelled because people couldn't get about and around," he said.

Last year, Windsor had seven centimetres of snow. Two centimetres or more on the ground on the morning of Dec. 25 is Environment Canada's definition of a white Christmas.

Phillips says the likelihood of a white Christmas has declined in Windsor-Essex over the years as the region sees the effects of climate change.

Back in the '60s, '70s and '80s, the chance was 56 to 60 per cent in the region, according to Phillips. 

Now, it's more like 40 to 43 per cent.

"It's really been that kind of subtle changes in temperature that have made the beginning of winter ... maybe a little bit more fall like rather than ... what you'd expect in the the dead of winter," he said.