GTA 'pivotal' for any political party that wants to win federal election, expert says

The Greater Toronto Area will be "pivotal" for any political party that wants to govern Canada and whoever wins the Sept. 20 federal election will have to take either Ontario or Quebec, a University of Windsor professor said.

Lydia Miljan, who teaches political science, said the usual logic is that a party cannot win a federal election in Canada unless it takes Quebec. Former prime minister Stephen Harper, however, defied that logic, she said.

"Well, we saw that Stephen Harper was able to win majorities without Quebec. But he only did that because he had Ontario. You have to have one or the other," Miljan said on Sunday.

"Obviously, vote-rich Ontario is always going to be an important component of any election victory for any major political party."

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau launched an early federal election on Sunday, asking Gov. Gen. Mary Simon in the morning to dissolve Parliament.

Miljan said she thinks it's a gamble on the part of Trudeau to try to secure a majority government with the fourth wave of the pandemic underway. The timing, with an election called during the dog days of summer, could create some resentment among voters.

"There is really no reason for them to have an election. We know the opposition parties are willing to co-operate with the government," she said.

Miljan added that much of the campaign may be fought through online events due to continuing public health restrictions and noted that Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole launched his campaign virtually on Sunday.

"He's going to use the pandemic as a way to reach out in the digital world. I think that sends an interesting signal. He's saying: 'We're going to be cautious. We're going to be prudent,'" she said.

Miljan said she thinks the campaign will involve a mix of virtual and mainly outdoor, in-person events. There could be drive-in campaign events, as there have been in the U.S., and there is likely to be more digital outreach.

Image, however, will likely come before policy at campaign events, she said.

Door knocking during the pandemic will also pose a challenge because Canadians may be hostile to politicians at the door, she added.

"There are a lot of different things that are going to make this campaign much more awkward than previous campaigns," she said. "It's not business as usual."

'Unknown variables' at play in election, prof says

Miljan said the campaign will involve a number of "unknown variables." These include: 

• How Canadians respond to newer leaders on the campaign trail, including O'Toole and Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, both of which may be underestimated. O'Toole, a politician "easily dismissed and underrated," has greatly improved his French language skills, while Paul, "terribly harmed by her own party, may be a "formidable player," she said.

• The extent to which the Delta variant is taking hold and how many hospitalizations there will be as the country gets closer to the election date.

• How well Paul does during the debates as the only woman and only Black leader on stage.

Miljan noted that this is the first time since fixed-date election laws have been in place that a minority government has chosen to go to the polls. Canada's next fixed-date election was set for October 2023.

"Stephen Harper put in those laws so we couldn't cherry pick election dates, like we're doing today," she said.

The campaign will last 36 days, the minimum campaign length permitted by law.

According to CBC's poll tracker, the Liberals hold a strong lead at more than 35 per cent. At dissolution, they held 155 seats in the House of Commons.