How much is trade between Saskatchewan and the U.S. worth?
U.S. gets majority of its imported potash from Saskatchewan
Saskatchewan sends much more product across the southern border than crosses into the province, according to Statistics Canada data. So what does a trade war mean for the province?
On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump implemented 10 per cent tariffs on Canadian oil and other energy exports headed to the U.S., and 25 per cent tariffs on all other products.
The United States is Saskatchewan's largest trading partner. Of the province's approximately $45 billion in international exports, more than half (about $26.7 billion) head to the U.S. In comparison, about $13 billion in merchandise from the United States comes into Saskatchewan — though it's unclear from data how much of that stays in the province.
Last year, Saskatchewan's leading exports to the U.S. were crude oil, potash and canola products, according to Statistics Canada (figures are in Canadian dollars):
- $12.47 billion in crude oil (100 per cent of the province's crude oil exports).
- $4.20 billion in potash (more than half of its potash exports).
- $1.98 billion in canola oil (nearly all of its canola oil exports).
- $1.10 billion in processed uranium (nearly all of its processed uranium exports).
Those four materials made up about 74 per cent of Saskatchewan's exports to the U.S. in 2024.
U.S. reliance on potash
Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Virginia-based Fertilizer Institute, said he was hoping to see fertilizer exempt from the tariffs.
He said the United States and its farmers rely heavily on Canadian potash. Canada provides 85 to 90 per cent of potash imported into America.
The U.S. also produces its own potash, "but by no means enough to meet the entire need," Rosenbusch said. It also imports some from Russia.
If the U.S. wanted to look elsewhere, Rosenbusch said, "the rest of the world would not be able to shift the supply chain to meet the U.S. demand."
Statistics Canada data shows the U.S. imported more than 12 billion kilograms of potash from Canada last year, all of which was from Saskatchewan.
A spokesperson for Canada's largest producer of potash, Nutrien, said in an emailed statement that U.S. farmers will bear the costs of the tariffs.
"In anticipation of tariffs, we've moved as much potash south of the border as possible ahead of the spring planting season," spokesperson Shawn Churchill said in the email.
Rosenbusch said the tariffs on potash will lead to higher prices on food, including burgers, pizza and even poultry that rely on grain.
He said he spoke with farmers at the 2025 Commodity Classic, an agricultural convention that's happened over the past several days. Some growers were concerned about the tariff news, others were either not aware or supported Trump base and trust his call.
He said the recent month-long delay on tariffs was beneficial for growers who could lock in contracts with retailers in the U.S. and fill their sheds with the needed fertilizer (including potash or other nutrients, like nitrogen and sulphur).
The other side of the coin
About 41 per cent of Saskatchewan's total international trade last year was with non-U.S. countries.
"I think we have some exposure on some of the natural resources side, but it's somewhat mitigated because we are exploring other markets," said Keith Willoughby, Dean of the Edwards School of Business at the University of Regina.
In Ontario, Premier Doug Ford has threatened to cut off energy supply to the U.S. because of the trade war.
Willoughby said if Saskatchewan were to push back against the U.S. tariffs in a similar way, the best strategy would be to use America's dependence on potash and heavy crude oil.
In comparison, the most valuable commodities to cross into Saskatchewan from the U.S. are heavy vehicles and machinery, according to data from Statistics Canada, although it's unclear whether those products remained in Saskatchewan after crossing.
As of Wednesday, none of those imports are on Canada's initial list of retaliatory tariffs, though some construction materials are.
"Just like a lot of the other industries in our country, we've very concerned about it," Shannon Friesen, president and CEO of the Construction Association of Saskatchewan, said about tariffs.
Construction is about six to seven per cent of Saskatchewan's gross domestic product (GDP).
"We're a pretty big industry and a pretty big driving force of the economy," she said.
Friesen is concerned about supply chain issues and rising costs from the tariffs, but said the construction industry is resilient.
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With files from The 306 and The Morning Edition