Uncertainty reigns in Sask. as President Donald Trump holds off on tariff threat for now
'It's impactful and it's far reaching': business association executive director
Political experts and businesses in Saskatchewan remain wary of President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs, despite reports that the newly sworn-in president will not implement the policy change immediately.
Multiple U.S. publications have reported that Trump will hold off on the tariffs for now and instead direct federal agencies in a memo to "investigate and remedy persistent trade deficits and address unfair trade and currency policies by other nations."
Canadian officials say Trump has been reviewing three options: a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian goods, a 10 per cent tariff on goods from all countries, or an escalating tariff that starts low and rises over time.
Keith Moen, executive director of the North Saskatoon Business Association, told host Stephanie Massicotte on CBC's Saskatoon Morning that any tariff could affect businesses both small and large in Saskatchewan.
"It could be something as simple as a catering service that provides to a company that relies on food services for their employees. It's impactful and it's far reaching," Moen said on Monday.
The United States is the largest market for Saskatchewan exports.
Statistics provided by the Saskatchewan Trade & Export Partnership (STEP) show that in 2023, Saskatchewan had $27.6 billion in exports to the United States. Crude oil, potash and canola products were among the top sectors.
Cheryl Camillo, a retired associate professor from the Johnson Shyama Graduate School of Public Policy, noted that Trump did not mention Canada or make a definitive statement about imposing tariffs during his inauguration speech.
However, Camillo told CBC's Blue Sky on Monday afternoon that she did not think the tariff threats are over.
"I do believe that there will be ongoing threats until he gets for the United States what he thinks he deserves from Canada," said Camillo, who is a United States citizen.
The reprieve will likely be of little comfort to businesses waiting for a decision.
Moen said the uncertainty about who will be impacted has everyone walking on egg shells.
"Mosaic — who has a significant operations here, but is a U.S. headquartered corporation — what does that mean for the Canadian operations?" Moen said. "There's a lot of unknowns, a lot of uncertainty and, let's face it, when it's President Trump talking, you know, how much of it is actually going to come to fruition?"
Chris Lane, president and CEO of Economic Development Regina, said the uncertainty from the threat of tariffs can be just as devastating as the tariffs themselves.
Lane said he's hopeful Trump's lack of comment on Canada during the inauguration might signal a change in policy.
"For the moment at least, everybody can maybe start to see an end to the inflammatory discussions around whether Canada is good for the U.S. or not," Lane said.
He said uncertainty can change decisions around large capital projects.
Lane pointed to the renewable diesel facility and canola crushing projects in Regina that have now been put on hold by Federated Co-operatives Limited. The company cited political and regulatory uncertainty as the reason for its decision.
"The economic opportunity of turning canola into renewable fuel in a place like Regina is sound, but different policies and different ways you enact them really start to chip away the viability of some of those things," Lane said.
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With files from John Paul Trasker, Saskatoon Morning, Blue Sky