Sask. first doses stall, but 'too early' to say if vaccine ceiling has been reached, economist says

University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe says it is too early to tell if any province, including Saskatchewan, has reached its ceiling for first dose vaccinations.

Second dose output has increased dramatically in Saskatchewan over the last week, while first doses have largely stalled in most age categories. On Tuesday, the province administered 9,860 second doses, compared to 2,668 first doses.

Tombe has been tracking vaccination rates across Canada and posting the data online.

He said looking at first doses alone does not tell the entire story.

He said nearly all provinces are using vaccine supply at a similar pace, though each has made different decisions on how to do so.

"The variation that we're seeing in that first dose share is fully accounted for by choices around administering and allocating those second shots." 

Tombe said the real test of each province's vaccine ceiling will come later this month and into July.

"As we get into July, it will start getting a clear picture whether some provinces have a higher ceiling than others."

He said Quebec, which leads the country at 75 per cent of its eligible population with one dose, will be the first to test its ceiling.

Tombe said that as June rolls on the picture of how large the vaccine-hesitant population is should become clearer.

Reopen Sask. depends on 1st dose uptake

The provincial government's reopen plan is tied only to first doses. It has already met the target for Steps 1 and 2, but it may take longer than expected to trigger Step 3, which requires 70 per cent of people 18 and over to have had a first dose.

The second stage of Step 3, triggered three weeks after 70 per cent of people 12 and over have their first shot, will take even more time at the current pace.

Once that mark is hit, large gathering restrictions and indoor mask mandates across the province would be removed, as long as it has been three weeks since June 20.

Sixty-eight per cent of those 18 and over have received one dose, while 65 per cent of those 12 and over have received one shot. 

In May, the province started splitting vaccine shipments with pharmacies. The SHA launched a school-based vaccination program last week and continues to offer walk-in clinics, drive-thru clinics and appointments to those eligible.

The province decided not to create a centralized booking system to jointly handle both SHA and pharmacy appointments.

On Tuesday, Health Minister Paul Merriman dismissed the idea of offering incentives to jump-start first dose uptake at this time.

On Wednesday, Manitoba announced it would award $1.9 million in cash and scholarships as a way to encourage more people to get vaccinated. 

The prizes will be awarded in two draws — one for people who get their first dose by Aug. 2, and another for those who get their second by Sept. 6. Anyone 12 and older who gets a vaccine will automatically become eligible to win.

Merriman and Premier Scott Moe have said the protection provided to the individual and the community, and the corresponding reopening of the province, are sufficient incentives to get vaccinated.

On Tuesday, the province released case and hospitalization numbers showing the impact of vaccinations.

Of Saskatchewan's 5,296 reported COVID-19 cases in May, 91.9 per cent involved people who were unvaccinated or whose vaccine hadn't kicked in yet. 

Of the 191 people hospitalized in May, 155 were unvaccinated or had received their first dose less than three weeks earlier. 

Sask. 2nd doses ahead of other provinces but 1st doses lag

Early in the spring, Saskatchewan had administered a higher percentage of first doses of vaccine than nearly every province.

As of Wednesday, the province had dropped to the back of the pack, vaccinating 57 per cent of the population, narrowly behind Alberta and one per cent higher than Prince Edward Island.

While first doses have dropped off, Saskatchewan has vaulted past other provinces when it comes to second dose shots.

As of Tuesday afternoon, Saskatchewan had surpassed Alberta for top spot among provinces with 13 per cent of its population fully vaccinated.

One key difference that distinguishes the Prairie provinces is that children aged 12 and younger form a larger percentage of the overall population than in other provinces. Alberta and Manitoba have 15 per cent of their population ineligible for a vaccine, while Saskatchewan leads all provinces with 16 per cent of the population under the age of 12.

As of Thursday, Saskatchewan will drop the age limit for second dose eligibility to 55 and over from 60 and over.

Canada's vaccination rollout gains steam after sluggish start

Tombe said he started tracking and posting the data as a "fun hobby," but that it is also "central to understanding the pace and potential strength of the economic recovery."

"When I first started to track this pretty closely, it was a pretty disappointing situation, to put it mildly," Tombe said of the slow vaccine rollout over the winter months.

He said the Canadian government's original projection for having 75 per cent of the eligible population by the end of September will likely be surpassed.

"Now it looks like we will be achieving potentially two doses for 75 per cent of eligible individuals by early August and so that's a really incredible amount of progress."

Canada compared unfavourably to the United States in vaccine rollout early in the year, but surpassed it for the percentage of population with one dose in late May.

"The pace of putting shots in the arms basically fell off a cliff in the middle of [April] in the United States and it doesn't look like they will actually even get to 70 per cent of their 12-plus population."

Tombe said the takeaway is that vaccine hesitancy in the U.S. "is a much, much larger problem" than in Canada. He said there has been a higher degree of politicization of vaccinations south of the border.