New poll suggests tight race in Sask.'s upcoming election

As Saskatchewan heads into election season, a new poll suggests that the margin between the Saskatchewan Party and the NDP has narrowed among decided voters.

Insightrix, a Saskatoon-based market research firm, asked an 860-person sample from July 23 to 26 which party they would vote for if an election were held immediately. 

Among people who said they are decided voters, 48 per cent chose the NDP and 47 per cent were in favour of the Sask. Party.

A similar poll in September 2023 was 53-39 in favour of the Sask. Party.

Lang McGilp, research director at Insightrix, said the projections are unusual for Saskatchewan.. 

"It is appearing like it's a bit of a tight race, at least at the popular vote level, and it might be a little bit different than what we've seen in past elections," he said.

The poll quota, Insightrix said, was weighted by age, gender and region to match the general population of the province. Insightrix said a margin or error is not applicable because the poll was conducted online and is considered a "non-probability proportion sample," but offered an estimated margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The proportion of undecided voters has hovered just above a quarter in recent Insightrix reports: 27 per cent in September 2023, 28 per cent in October 2023, 27 per cent in April 2024, and 28 per cent in July 2024. 

McGilp said these numbers suggest that the decrease in the gap is being caused by decided voters choosing a different party. 

The popular vote favours Sask. Party in northern and southern rural areas 61-29 and 57-35 respectively, according to the polls. That trend was reversed for Saskatoon and Regina, with the NDP leading 64-34 and 61-36.

McGilp said that while other demographics like gender and age are in line with what previous polls have seen, the rural-urban divide has shown some noticeable polarization.

"We're definitely seeing, I think, a little bit more pronounced shift in that way," he said.

Among the respondents, the top priorities were health care (28 per cent), inflation/rising costs (21 per cent) and economy/jobs (14 per cent).

The biggest divide between surveyed NDP voters and Sask. Party voters was on the issue of education. When asked which issue would have the most impact on the respondent's vote if an election was held today, 52 per cent of NDP voters selected education as one of their top three. That number for Sask. Party voters was 16 per cent. 

Insightrix also asked people about perceptions. McGilp said these subjective answers were categorized as positive and negative.

The report said more than half of the people said something negative about Sask. Party Leader Scott Moe, whereas 37 per cent of the people had negative perceptions of Sask. NDP Leader Carla Beck. 

McGilp said the results on that front don't necessarily surprise him.

"As a leader of the province and premier for a number of years here, there's a variety of issues that he's had to address and tackle, and he's regularly in the media. So I think over time there's the ability to have things attached to him," he said.

Insightrix is continuing to watch the election closely, McGilp said.

"Walking at this stage into the election, it's maybe a little bit different than the last two or three. So it'll be interesting to see what unfolds," he said.