Researchers say Sask. food prices projected to rise in 2025, but less than national average

A new joint report from four Canadian universities including the University of Saskatchewan is predicting that food prices in Canada will rise by as much as five per cent in 2025, with Saskatchewan projected to fare slightly better.

The 2025 Canada's Food Price Report, released on Thursday, says food prices in Saskatchewan rose by 2.8 per cent in 2024. They will likely rise again in 2025, though below the national average. Canada's overall inflation rate in October 2024 was two per cent.

According to the report, a typical family four in Canada is expected to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025. That's an increase of $801.56 from 2024.

The highest price increases are expected to be in meats, which could become as much as six per cent more expensive next year nationally.

Dr. Stuart Smyth, a professor of agriculture and resource economics at the University of Saskatchewan, was one of the report's co-authors. He said that while food prices at the national level are still rising, the rate of increase is declining because supply chain turbulence brought on by COVID-19 has receded.

Nevertheless, he said, a declining Canadian dollar and droughts in Western Canada are continuing to push prices upward.

Lack of rain in particular has been a challenge for Saskatchewan, Smyth said. Farmers have been forced to reduce their herd sizes, which is lowering the supply of beef.

"We're seeing, depending on the region, five, six, seven years of lower than average precipitation in that west, central, southwest corner," he said. "The fact that there's fewer cattle available means there's fewer going to market, which is less supply."

At the same time, according to Smyth, Saskatchewan is slightly better positioned than other provinces in Eastern Canada because of geographical and logistical advantages.

"Where Saskatchewan sees a bit of a benefit is because so much of what we're importing particularly comes from Asian countries. So it's coming into Vancouver and then it gets thrown on a rail." he said. "That's really just due to the geographical situation of having to rail things further to get them to those [Eastern Canadian] markets."

Added pressure on food banks

John Bailey, CEO of the Regina Food Bank, said his organization spent more than $1 million last year on food purchases, about 10 times more than five years ago.

The food bank has experienced an unprecedented rise in demand in that time. According to Bailey, the number of people accessing the service has increased by more than 230 per cent since 2019. 

"The gap between what we can get donated and what we need to serve our community continues to grow," he said. "So that means we're out in the market purchasing more food."

Inflation means the people who donate to the food bank also have less money to give, leading to lower donations, Bailey said. Corporate donors, on the other hand, are experiencing lower margins, leading to fewer donations from them as well.

"As these companies try to manage their margins, we are anticipating that number could potentially start to go down," said Bailey. "Which would be something we haven't seen in the past two or three years."

Shoppers at Save On Foods in Saskatoon said they feel squeezed by the price increases.

Marie Vermette is a senior who lives with her husband. "I can't imagine how families manage," she said. "It must be very hard for people who have children."

Derrick Sather, shopping for his father, was particularly worried about the price of bread. "It jumped here overnight," he said. "It's important that people start to realize that it's costing more to live."