Dire climate report signals need for urgent action in Ottawa Valley

Michel Simonot stands in front of his home in Ottawa's south end. Blue patching covers where his roof was torn open when a tornado ripped through the neighbourhood last month.

Researchers have predicted similar damage may become more common as climate change appears to be causing more tornado activity in Ontario.

Now, a new 530-page provincial report is warning the impacts of climate change will only get worse.

The report finds that eastern Ontario could face an average of up to 60 days of extreme heat (over 30 C) per year by 2080 under what's commonly known as the "worst-case" scenario where emissions rise until 2100.

Locally, that would mean last week's record heat would be a lot more common, as those types of temperatures would happen three times as often as they do now on average — placing vulnerable people, businesses, infrastructure and agriculture at further risk.

In a summer where the Ottawa Valley has experienced multiple tornadoes, wildfire smoke and flash flooding, Simonot said it's time for urgent action.

"It's good to hear that they're starting to pay attention to it. My only question is how fast are they going to take it serious?" he asked.

"Is the weather going to change faster than the politics?"

Some not concerned

The report paints a grim future, including the possibility of livestock fatalities and crop failure. 

Corn in particular has a high chance of up to a 50 per cent drop in production, and eastern Ontario's 450,000 acres of cornfields puts it second in the province.

One prediction is drier weather making for smaller ears, more stalk rot and more corn leaf aphids.

Not everyone is so sure.

"I don't believe that," said Embrun farmer Michel Dignard, who grows corn. "Right now we got better yield than we had before."

As for animals, Dignard said his barns — already able to withstand extreme heat — will "be, like always, a 5 star hotel" with the ventilation system he has in place.

Dignard said there's an undeniable change in climate, but in the 40 years he's been in business the only constant is change.

"There's always something different, so we'll have to adapt," he said. "No problem there."

City 'doing what it can'

Despite mixed reaction, the report paints a similar picture to a 2020 study commissioned by the City of Ottawa and the National Capital Commission.

That report said if global emissions peak by 2050, broadly seen as the moderate scenario, the region should go from 18 extreme heat days a year to 36 by 2080 — double what it sees now, but nearly half as many as the worst-case.

That report indicated the increase in heat waves and flooding would put pressure on everything from emergency services to the foundations of buildings.

Coun. Shawn Menard, who also chairs the city's environment and climate change committee, said "the city is doing what it can right now" to adapt.

Those efforts, he said, include pushing for building retrofits, working to reduce the risk of flooding and enhancing Ottawa's resiliency to powerful windstorms like last year's derecho.

Menard said the city now needs to "invest in the mitigation for what we're going to see in the future, which is a health risk for our residents."

Coun. Steve Desroches said there needs to be a stronger partnership between the city and the province to make change. He called for an investment strategy to help cities such as Ottawa make infrastructure more resilient to extreme weather events.

Simonot, who has a young son, said climate action needs to happen quicker.

"People are saying [climate change is] going to get worse as time goes on," he said. "So I do worry about what's going to happen."

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